Table 2

Estimates of fitting parameters and the effective reproduction number for the second wave of the 2009 pandemic in different health regions in the province of Manitoba

Parameters


Health Region

r (95% CI)

K (CRC)*

tm

Re (95% CI)


Brandon

0.2064 (0.1664-0.2787)

97 (98)

Nov 11

1.74 (1.57-2.07)


Central

0.1826 (0.1644-0.2067)

271 (270)

Nov 9

1.63 (1.56-1.74)


Assiniboine

0.1459 (0.1378-0.1553)

201 (202)

Nov 12

1.49 (1.46-1.52)


Interlake

0.1698 (0.1469-0.2049)

149 (148)

Nov 12

1.58 (1.49-1.73)


Winnipeg

0.2470 (0.2127-0.2973)

702(706)

Nov 7

1.92 (1.76-2.17)


Manitoba

0.1899 (0.1731-0.2113)

1764 (1774)

Nov 9

1.67 (1.60-1.76)


*CRC cumulative reported cases. Estimates correspond to the best fit of the Richards model to the cumulative number of confirmed cases. 95% confidence interval for Re corresponds to the average generation time of 2.9 days.

Mosta├žo-Guidolin et al. BMC Research Notes 2011 4:537   doi:10.1186/1756-0500-4-537

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