Table 1

Estimates of fitting parameters and the basic reproduction number for the first wave of the 2009 pandemic in different health regions in the province of Manitoba

Parameters


Health Region

r (95% CI)

K (CRC)*

tm

R0 (95% CI)


Burntwood

0.3116 (0.2503-0.4208)

187 (186)

June 5

2.24 (1.93-2.88)


North Eastman

0.1991 (0.1734-0.2390)

56 (56)

June 14

1.70 (1.60-1.88)


Norman

0.1746 (0.1458-0.2217)

57 (58)

June 8

1.60 (1.49-1.80)


Interlake

0.1606 (0.1353-0.2023)

53 (54)

June 14

1.55 (1.45-1.72)


Winnipeg

0.2001 (0.1730-0.2397)

395 (401)

June 9

1.71 (1.60-1.89)


Manitoba

0.1949 (0.1700-0.2306)

878 (891)

June 9

1.69 (1.58-1.84)


*CRC cumulative reported cases. Estimates correspond to the best fit of the Richards model to the cumulative number of confirmed cases. 95% confidence interval for R0 corresponds to the average generation time of 2.9 days.

Mosta├žo-Guidolin et al. BMC Research Notes 2011 4:537   doi:10.1186/1756-0500-4-537

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