Table 1

Description of the risk factors used in the model for ASFV introduction into EU by TAR
Name Risk factors Parameter to be estimated Data source Assumptions Uncertainty
P1 Number of live pigs exported from EU to ASF-affected countries by road Number of potential ASF contaminated returning trucks [22] (Nov. 2007–2009) Only pig exports to TCC and RF were considered. Other type of trucks could also get in contact with ASFV in affected areas; however the most probable is that a pig truck enters into a farm.
It was assumed that trucks that export live pigs may enter into a farm and potentially become contaminated with ASFV.
P2 Number of the roads crossing EU national boundaries with non-EU states Number of ways (and consequently, facility) of a truck to arrive by road to an EU country from non-EU countries. [23] Borders with all non-EU member states were included except members of the European Free Trade Association (Switzerland, Lichtenstein, Norway). Other factors such as cultural relations, effectiveness and quality of controls or topography, were not considered.
It was assumed that higher number of cross border points, implies higher number of connections, and consequently easier to share trucks movements.
P3 Three scenarios were used to approximate the proportion of returning trucks not properly disinfected Returning trucks not properly disinfected [7] Despite disinfection of returning trucks from ASF affected areas is mandatory, this measure is not always 100% effective. As no field data is available related with efficiency of this measure, common scenarios were used for the 27 EU countries. If known, differences between countries may be simulated within the model by the selection of different scenarios in each country.
For the best scenario, a 5% of returning trucks not properly disinfected was assumed, 15% for the medium scenario, and 25% for the worst case scenario.
P4 Inward number of cargo ships from ASF-infected countries to EU ports Potential ASF-contaminated waste introduced by cargo ships [22]; [14] Imports of goods were considered without differences between products. More volume of goods implies more waste. Catering used in the cargo ship not necessary comes from the departure country.
P5 Inward number of passenger ships coming from ASF-infected countries to EU Potential ASF-contaminated waste introduced by passenger ships (excluding cruises) [22]; [14] More passengers imply more catering and consequently, more waste. Passenger ships not always have catering and do not imply that food comes from origin countries.
P6 Short sea shipping (SSS) ships coming from ASF-infected countries to EU Potential ASF-contaminated waste introduced by SSS movements [22]; GIS Volume of goods transported by SSS movements by Baltic and Black sea. Only two sea regions were considered as potential risk for ASF introduction (Baltic and Black sea). Higher volume of transported products not always implies higher number of crew on the boat and consequently higher volume of catering and food brought from origin countries.
P7 Proportion of cruise ships coming from ASF-affected areas by country Potential ASF-contaminated waste introduced by cruises <a onClick="popup('','MathML',630,470);return false;" target="_blank" href="">View MathML</a> Assuming that these cruises bring catering food from departure or call countries. A potential stop in an affected country does not always imply use of food from this country.
Unknown origin of cruise catering increase uncertainty of this measure.
CA Number of cruise ships arriving at EU ports after one stop in ASF-infected areas. [24] Assuming a similar number of cruises and origins in the different years. Data from one year to another may change
Cp Number of cruise passengers arriving at EU ports (Cp) [22] Data from one year to another may change
P Average number of passenger by cruise ship was used to estimate number of cruisers (P) [25] Assuming a similar number of passengers by cruise. Different types of cruises with different capacities could affect the final estimation
P8 Commercial passenger flights from ASF-infected countries to EU airports Potential contaminated waste introduced by international passenger flights [22];[14] It was assumed that commercial flights from affected areas could potentially bring food from origin countries. The higher the number of flights from ASF-infected countries, the higher the risk of using ASF contaminated products. Unknown origin of the catering increase uncertainty of this measure.

Detailed data about assumptions, uncertainties and data source of each risk factor used in the model was included in the table.

Mur et al.

Mur et al. BMC Veterinary Research 2012 8:149   doi:10.1186/1746-6148-8-149

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