Table 1 |
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Distribution of the final number of cases for the three network types according to the four scenarios (5000 runs, dynamic contact network of 405 participating attendees) |
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1 to 10 final cases (AR* ≤ 2.5%) |
11 to 40 final cases (2.5% < AR ≤ 10%) |
> 40 final cases (AR > 10%) |
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|
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Scenarios |
Parameters |
Networka |
Runs, n |
% of run with no secondary cases |
% run |
Mean cases, n |
90% CI |
% run |
Mean cases, n |
90% CI |
% run |
Mean cases, n |
90% CI |
|
|
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|
REPb |
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|
|
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|
Very short latency |
σ-1 = 1 days |
DYN |
5000 |
47.3 |
18.2 |
2.3 |
1 to 6 |
0.7 |
15.9 |
11 to 22 |
33.8 |
208 |
169 to 242 |
|
|
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|
Very short infectiousness |
v-1 = 2 days |
HET |
5000 |
46.4 |
17.7 |
2.4 |
1 to 7 |
0.8 |
17.9 |
11 to 32 |
35.2 |
210 |
171 to 243 |
|
|
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|
Transmission rate |
β = 3.10-4/s |
HOM |
5000 |
41.7 |
11.7 |
2.2 |
1 to 6 |
0.2 |
16.6 |
11 to 30 |
46.3 |
285 |
257 to 310 |
|
|
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|
Short latency |
σ-1 = 2 days |
DYN |
5000 |
45.3 |
17.0 |
2.2 |
1 to 7 |
0.4 |
18.3 |
11 to 38 |
37.3 |
214 |
178 to 246 |
|
|
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|
Short infectiousness |
v-1 = 4 days |
HET |
5000 |
44.4 |
16.4 |
2.2 |
1 to 6 |
0.6 |
16.8 |
11 to 27 |
38.6 |
216 |
178 to 248 |
|
|
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|
Transmission rate |
β = 15.10-5/s |
HOM |
5000 |
38.7 |
13;2 |
2.1 |
1 to 6 |
0.1 |
13.2 |
11 to 15 |
48.1 |
288 |
262 to 310 |
|
|
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|
RAND-SHc |
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|
|
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|
Very short latency |
σ-1 = 1 days |
DYN |
5000 |
44.8 |
19.4 |
2.8 |
1 to 8 |
2.2 |
17.9 |
11 to 31 |
33.6 |
278 |
223 to 319 |
|
|
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|
Very short infectiousness |
v-1 = 2 days |
HET |
5000 |
45.4 |
18.5 |
2.6 |
1 to 7 |
1.6 |
17.6 |
11 to 30 |
34.5 |
284 |
241 to 322 |
|
|
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|
Transmission rate |
β = 3.10-4/s |
HOM |
5000 |
39.9 |
14.3 |
2.6 |
1 to 7 |
0.8 |
15.7 |
11 to 28 |
45.0 |
324 |
291 to 350 |
|
|
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|
Short latency |
σ-1 = 2 days |
DYN |
5000 |
40.6 |
18.6 |
2.7 |
1 to 8 |
1.4 |
19.2 |
11 to 31 |
39.4 |
297 |
254 to 331 |
|
|
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|
Short infectiousness |
v-1 = 4 days |
HET |
5000 |
39.5 |
18.0 |
2.7 |
1 to 8 |
1.3 |
16.7 |
11 to 30 |
41.2 |
300 |
259 to 333 |
|
|
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|
Transmission rate |
β = 15.10-5/s |
HOM |
5000 |
35.9 |
15.7 |
2.5 |
1 to 7 |
0.9 |
17.0 |
11 to 31 |
47.5 |
325 |
293 to 352 |
|
|
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|
CONSTR-SHd |
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|
|
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|
Very short latency |
σ-1 = 1 days |
DYN |
5000 |
45.4 |
17.7 |
2.4 |
1 to 7 |
1.0 |
17.0 |
11 to 28 |
35.8 |
240 |
194 to 278 |
|
|
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|
Very short infectiousness |
v-1 = 2 days |
HET |
5000 |
46.8 |
16.5 |
2.4 |
1 to 7 |
0.8 |
19.0 |
11 to 33 |
35.9 |
245 |
202 to 282 |
|
|
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|
Transmission rate |
β = 3.10-4/s |
HOM |
5000 |
39.8 |
13.3 |
2.3 |
1 to 6 |
0.7 |
15.4 |
11 to 21 |
46.2 |
308 |
278 to 334 |
|
|
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|
Short latency |
σ-1 = 2 days |
DYN |
5000 |
40.9 |
18.2 |
2.3 |
1 to 6 |
0.8 |
16.8 |
11 to 34 |
40.2 |
258 |
215 to 292 |
|
|
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|
Short infectiousness |
v-1 = 4 days |
HET |
5000 |
41.3 |
16.8 |
2.3 |
1 to 7 |
0.5 |
14.0 |
11 to 25 |
41.4 |
257 |
213 to 292 |
|
|
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|
Transmission rate |
β = 15.10-5/s |
HOM |
5000 |
35.7 |
14.8 |
2.4 |
1 to 7 |
0.4 |
15.2 |
11 to 21 |
49.2 |
314 |
284 to 339 |
|
|
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|
aNetworks: DYN = dynamic; HET = heterogenous; HOM = homogenous. bRepetition. cRandom shuffling. dConstrained shuffling. |
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|
Stehlé et al. BMC Medicine 2011 9:87 doi:10.1186/1741-7015-9-87 |
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