Table 1

Distribution of the final number of cases for the three network types according to the four scenarios (5000 runs, dynamic contact network of 405 participating attendees)

1 to 10 final cases (AR* ≤ 2.5%)

11 to 40 final cases (2.5% < AR ≤ 10%)

> 40 final cases (AR > 10%)


Scenarios

Parameters

Networka

Runs, n

% of run with no secondary cases

% run

Mean cases, n

90% CI

% run

Mean cases, n

90% CI

% run

Mean cases, n

90% CI


REPb


Very short latency

σ-1 = 1 days

DYN

5000

47.3

18.2

2.3

1 to 6

0.7

15.9

11 to 22

33.8

208

169 to 242


Very short infectiousness

v-1 = 2 days

HET

5000

46.4

17.7

2.4

1 to 7

0.8

17.9

11 to 32

35.2

210

171 to 243


Transmission rate

β = 3.10-4/s

HOM

5000

41.7

11.7

2.2

1 to 6

0.2

16.6

11 to 30

46.3

285

257 to 310


Short latency

σ-1 = 2 days

DYN

5000

45.3

17.0

2.2

1 to 7

0.4

18.3

11 to 38

37.3

214

178 to 246


Short infectiousness

v-1 = 4 days

HET

5000

44.4

16.4

2.2

1 to 6

0.6

16.8

11 to 27

38.6

216

178 to 248


Transmission rate

β = 15.10-5/s

HOM

5000

38.7

13;2

2.1

1 to 6

0.1

13.2

11 to 15

48.1

288

262 to 310


RAND-SHc


Very short latency

σ-1 = 1 days

DYN

5000

44.8

19.4

2.8

1 to 8

2.2

17.9

11 to 31

33.6

278

223 to 319


Very short infectiousness

v-1 = 2 days

HET

5000

45.4

18.5

2.6

1 to 7

1.6

17.6

11 to 30

34.5

284

241 to 322


Transmission rate

β = 3.10-4/s

HOM

5000

39.9

14.3

2.6

1 to 7

0.8

15.7

11 to 28

45.0

324

291 to 350


Short latency

σ-1 = 2 days

DYN

5000

40.6

18.6

2.7

1 to 8

1.4

19.2

11 to 31

39.4

297

254 to 331


Short infectiousness

v-1 = 4 days

HET

5000

39.5

18.0

2.7

1 to 8

1.3

16.7

11 to 30

41.2

300

259 to 333


Transmission rate

β = 15.10-5/s

HOM

5000

35.9

15.7

2.5

1 to 7

0.9

17.0

11 to 31

47.5

325

293 to 352


CONSTR-SHd


Very short latency

σ-1 = 1 days

DYN

5000

45.4

17.7

2.4

1 to 7

1.0

17.0

11 to 28

35.8

240

194 to 278


Very short infectiousness

v-1 = 2 days

HET

5000

46.8

16.5

2.4

1 to 7

0.8

19.0

11 to 33

35.9

245

202 to 282


Transmission rate

β = 3.10-4/s

HOM

5000

39.8

13.3

2.3

1 to 6

0.7

15.4

11 to 21

46.2

308

278 to 334


Short latency

σ-1 = 2 days

DYN

5000

40.9

18.2

2.3

1 to 6

0.8

16.8

11 to 34

40.2

258

215 to 292


Short infectiousness

v-1 = 4 days

HET

5000

41.3

16.8

2.3

1 to 7

0.5

14.0

11 to 25

41.4

257

213 to 292


Transmission rate

β = 15.10-5/s

HOM

5000

35.7

14.8

2.4

1 to 7

0.4

15.2

11 to 21

49.2

314

284 to 339


aNetworks: DYN = dynamic; HET = heterogenous; HOM = homogenous.

bRepetition.

cRandom shuffling.

dConstrained shuffling.

Stehlé et al. BMC Medicine 2011 9:87   doi:10.1186/1741-7015-9-87

Open Data