Table 1

Morphine estimates, mortality and pain treatment need.

Country

Cancer deaths 2002 estimate

AIDS deaths 2005 estimate

No. of individuals expected to need pain treatment in 2009

Estimated total morphine need in 2009 (kg)

Estimate of morphine need provided by country to INCB for 2009 (kg)

No. of individuals estimate is sufficient for

Percentage of those needing treatment who would be covered by estimate

Countries that estimate almost no need for morphine

Benin

13490

9986

15786

96

0.5

83

0.50%

Senegal

17625

5432

16816

102

0.6

99

0.60%

Rwanda

14196

21956

22335

136

0.8

132

0.60%

Gambia

2395

1430

2631

16

0.18

31

1.20%

Bhutan

727

>10 per 100,000

582

3.5

0.08

14

2.30%

Burkina Faso

23262

13067

25143

153

0.05

8

0.03%

Eritrea

6240

5959

7972

48

0.075

12

0.15%

Gabon

2071

4457

3886

24

0.088

14

0.40%

Swaziland

1837

17577

10258

62

0.5

82

0.80%

Selected other countries

Egypt

62299

>10 per 100,000

49840

303

10

1646

3%

Philippines

78500

>10 per 100,000

62800

382

31

5103

8%

Kenya

50809

149502

115398

701

30

4938

4%

Russian Federation

217696

N/A

174157

1058

200

32922

15%

Mexico

92701

6321

77321

470

180

29630

38%

Projection for the numbers of people requiring pain treatment does not include those with acute pain or pain related to non-terminal cancer or HIV and do not include pain control medications other than morphine. The table is based on an estimate by Foley and others that 80% of terminal cancer patients and 50% of terminal AIDS patients will require an average of 90 days of pain treatment with 60 mg to 75 mg of morphine per day [16]. Country estimates were obtained from INCB website [43]; projections for annual cancer and AIDS deaths are based on the most recent cancer and AIDS mortality figures reported by the WHO [79].

Lohman et al. BMC Medicine 2010 8:8   doi:10.1186/1741-7015-8-8