Table 1 |
|||||
|
Median, quartile and minimum - maximum values for selected outputs of one year of model simulation. |
|||||
|
Model output |
Minimum |
Lower quartile |
Median |
Upper quartile |
Maximum |
|
|
|||||
|
Time to reach 20-case point (days) |
9.0 |
12.0 |
14.0 |
19.0 |
39.0 |
|
|
|||||
|
Time to reach 100-case point (days) |
13.0 |
18.0 |
22.0 |
32.0 |
71.0 |
|
|
|||||
|
Time for 32 provinces to be affected (days) |
34.0 |
45.0 |
57.0 |
86.5 |
314.0 |
|
|
|||||
|
Time for 48 provinces to be affected (days) |
41.0 |
55.0 |
71.5 |
112.0 |
> 1 year |
|
|
|||||
|
Epidemic peak point (days) |
45.0 |
62.5 |
80.8 |
121.0 |
not reached |
|
|
|||||
|
Final epidemic size (number of cases) |
103,885 |
4,432,247 |
6,377,555 |
8,021,328 |
9,796,738 |
|
|
|||||
|
Cumulative number hospitalized |
594 |
38,832 |
58,165 |
74,935 |
104.976 |
|
|
|||||
|
Average number of new cases per day over 2-week peak period |
1916 |
88,453 |
174,804 |
245,209 |
326,260 |
|
|
|||||
|
Average number of new hospitalizations per day over 2-week peak period |
9 |
779 |
1,564 |
2,238 |
3508 |
|
|
|||||
|
Cumulative number of cases in swine owners |
1940 |
224,208 |
410,276 |
671,703 |
1,159,291 |
|
|
|||||
|
Cumulative number of cases in chicken owners |
630 |
172,731 |
351,243 |
632,316 |
1,174,682 |
|
|
|||||
|
Cumulative number of cases in duck owners |
160 |
23,732 |
51,131 |
95,790 |
182,520 |
|
|
|||||
|
Number of days Hanoi hospitals running at > 150% bed capacity |
0 |
0 |
0 |
14 |
20 |
|
|
|||||
|
Number of days HCMC hospitals running at > 150% bed capacity |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
11 |
|
|
|||||
|
Time from 100-case point in HCMC to 100-case point in Hanoi |
12 |
23 |
29 |
43 |
156 |
|
|
|||||
|
Number of rural cases |
16,105 |
963,791 |
1,540,008 |
2,184,359 |
3,220,171 |
|
|
|||||
|
Number of urban cases |
87,780 |
3,440,732 |
4,844,258 |
5,831,431 |
6,668,559 |
|
|
|||||
|
Number of exposed pigs |
3,053 |
259,328 |
462,633 |
737,443 |
1,239,324 |
|
|
|||||
|
Number of exposed chickens |
4,612 |
1,890,957 |
3,745,045 |
6,417,106 |
11,419,922 |
|
|
|||||
|
Number of exposed ducks |
2,319 |
580,132 |
1,176,129 |
2,072,495 |
3,708,187 |
|
|
|||||
|
Number of infections by age group |
|||||
|
|
|||||
|
0 to 5 years |
7,611 |
366,741 |
543,858 |
685,656 |
832,651 |
|
|
|||||
|
6 to 15 years |
35,370 |
1,211,114 |
1,617,223 |
2,031,725 |
2,609,789 |
|
|
|||||
|
16 to 25 years |
30,075 |
1,312,009 |
1,837,835 |
2,212,661 |
2,599,191 |
|
|
|||||
|
26 to 34 years |
22,277 |
998,079 |
1,450,723 |
1,784,407 |
2,096,515 |
|
|
|||||
|
35 to 49 years |
6,067 |
363,076 |
627,659 |
870,774 |
1,134,289 |
|
|
|||||
|
50 to 64 years |
1,920 |
130,147 |
232,582 |
329,305 |
435,306 |
|
|
|||||
|
65 years and over |
565 |
38,492 |
71,658 |
106,032 |
147,498 |
|
|
|||||
|
Hospitalizations by age group |
|||||
|
|
|||||
|
0 to 5 years |
71 |
4,493 |
6,766 |
8,624 |
12,144 |
|
|
|||||
|
6 to 15 years |
113 |
5,453 |
7,467 |
9,481 |
13,831 |
|
|
|||||
|
16 to 25 years |
119 |
8,128 |
11,393 |
14,091 |
18,991 |
|
|
|||||
|
26 to 34 years |
198 |
13,580 |
19,932 |
24,989 |
33,959 |
|
|
|||||
|
35 to 49 years |
81 |
5,540 |
9,424 |
13,345 |
19,910 |
|
|
|||||
|
50 to 64 years |
10 |
1,284 |
2,279 |
3,310 |
5,262 |
|
|
|||||
|
65 years and over |
2 |
393 |
721 |
1,079 |
1,792 |
|
|
|||||
|
Boni et al. BMC Medicine 2009 7:43 doi:10.1186/1741-7015-7-43 |
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