Table 33

Comparison of effects of smoking and smokeless tobacco on smoking-related cancer^a in US males aged 35+

Oropharynx

Oesophagus

Pancreas

Larynx

Lung

Bladder

Kidney

Total

Number of deaths (D_i)^b

5,224

10,578

16,105

2,980

90,096

9,181

8,041

142,205

Relative risks^c

Current cigarette smoking (R_ci)

27.48

7.60

2.14

10.48

22.36

2.86

2.95

Former cigarette smoking (R_fi)

8.80

5.83

1.12

5.24

9.36

1.90

1.95

Deaths if all the population were never smokers (D_i*)^d

567

2,681

12,524

679

10,901

5,445

4,671

37,468

Deaths eliminated if all the population were never smokers (E)^e

104,737

Relative risks^f

- any ST use (R_si)

1.36

1.13

1.07

1.34

1.00^g

1.00^h

1.09

Deaths in a population of never smokersⁱ

Same % become ST users as were smokers (D_i**)

676

2,866

12,988

801

10,901

5,445

4,894

38,570

100% of population become ST users (D_i***)

772

3,029

13,400

910

10,901

5,445

5,091

39,548

Increase in deaths in a population of never smokers^j

Same % become ST users as were smokers (I₁)

1,102

100% of population become ST users (I₂)

2,081

^a ICD 10^th revision codes [127] used are oropharynx (C00–C14), oesophagus (C15), pancreas (C25), larynx (C32), lung (C33, C34), bladder (C67) and kidney (C64–C66, C68).

^b Numbers of deaths in 2005 from WHO [123]. Here and for other results, the entries in brackets correspond to the notation used in the methods section.

^c Relative risks from US Surgeon General's Report 1989 [122] Table 6 p 150, derived from CPS-II.

^d D_i* is calculated as shown in the methods section, assuming 21.8% of current smokers and 31.2% of former smokers, based on the National Health Interview Survey 2005 [124].

^e E = Σ (D_i - D_i*).

^f Relative risks for any ST use, based on smoking-adjusted data, as given in Tables 4, 6, 8, 10, 16, 20 and 22 for the seven cancers shown.

^g Actually 0.99, but taken as 1.00 for the purposes of estimation.

^h Actually 0.95, but taken as 1.00 for the purposes of estimation.

ⁱ D_i** and D_i*** are calculated as shown in the methods section, assuming that 53.0% or 100.0% respectively of the population use ST.

^j I₁ = Σ (D_i** - D_i*), I₂ = Σ (D_i*** - D_i*)

Lee and Hamling BMC Medicine 2009 7:36   doi:10.1186/1741-7015-7-36