Results from a cross-species multi-strain transmission model where pigs act as 'mixing vessels'. This figure shows the severity of the epidemic that occurs when a 'super-strain' emerges into the human population from pigs, as a function of the cross-species interaction and the transmissibility/infectivity of the 'super-strain' in humans. The maximal number of infectives that could occur in any year (estimated over a 150-year time period) is shown in dark red. The contour map illustrates that the greatest outbreak occurs when the transmissibility/infectivity of the 'super-strain' is greater than 0.024 and less than 0.04; this implies 2.3 <R0 < 3.8.
Coburn et al. BMC Medicine 2009 7:30 doi:10.1186/1741-7015-7-30