Table 1

Key model parameters with source and ranges (epidemic and behavioral characteristics, intervention scale and effectiveness, health and intervention costs)
Parameter Value and source Range
Prevalence
HIV prevalence 17.9% [24] 17.2% to 18.3%
ART
Initial access to ART 40% [24] 35% to 45%
ART quit rate (annual) 0.02 Est 0.00 to 0.20
Sexual transmission reduction 95% [9] 50.0% to 99.0%
PrEP
PrEP quit rate (annual) 0.05 Est 0.00 to 0.20
Sexual acquisition reduction 60% [15,16] 10% to 90%
Sexual behavior
Number of sexual partners per year - general 1.5 [25], Est 1 to 2
Number of sexual partners per year - high risk 4 Est 3 to 5
Condom usage rate - general 25% [25], Est 10% to 40%
Condom usage rate - high risk 5% Est 0% to 10%
Condom effectiveness 90% [26] 85.0% to 95.0%
Annual costs (US$)
Non-HIV medical costs 200 100 to 300
HIV costs 1,000 [27] 800 to 1200
ART cost 150 [28,29] 100 to 200
PrEP cost 80 [28,29] 50 to 250

ART, antiretroviral therapy; PrEP, pre-exposure prophylaxis.

Alistar et al.

Alistar et al. BMC Medicine 2014 12:46   doi:10.1186/1741-7015-12-46

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