Geographical variability. (A) Ratio between probability of outbreak in different urban areas and probability of outbreak in Rotterdam (The Netherlands) for different values of R0 by assuming reference scenario. (B) Ratio between probability of outbreak in urban and rural areas in different countries for different values of R0 by assuming reference scenario. Urban areas as in (A); rural areas are low population density areas in Wales (UK, 80 km north of Cardiff), Uppland (SE, 100 km north of Uppsala), Sardinia island (IT, 50 km east of Sassari), Andalusia - Castile la Mancha (ES, 50 km northeast of Cordoba), Centre-Burgundy (France, 80 km southeast of Orleans). Note that the reported value of R0 refers to that of simulations carried out for Rotterdam (The Netherlands); comparative results for other countries are obtained by assuming the same transmission rates in the different social contexts (that is the same probability of infection transmission given a contact in a certain setting) as in Rotterdam. A total of 1,000 simulations were undertaken for each parameter set to produce the results shown.
Merler et al. BMC Medicine 2013 11:252 doi:10.1186/1741-7015-11-252