Reference scenario. (A) Probability of outbreak for different values of R0 by assuming no intervention scenario (uncontrolled epidemics) and reference scenario. (B) Probability of undetected epidemics for different values of R0 by assuming reference scenario (in red) and reference scenario with different values of Pc. (C) Upper panel: overall number of cases in contained outbreaks by assuming reference scenario and R0 = 1.5 (not considering autoextinct epidemics). Middle panel: as upper panel but for the number of traced cases. Lower panel: as upper panel but for the number of isolated individuals (including the laboratory’s contact network). A total of 1,000 simulations were undertaken for each parameter set to produce the results shown.
Merler et al. BMC Medicine 2013 11:252 doi:10.1186/1741-7015-11-252