Table 2

Correlation in the UCLMS Cohort studya,b,c
Overall performance at medical school (years 1 to 5) Examination performance
BMS (years 1 and 2) Clinical (years 3 to 5) Written (years 1 to 5) OSCE/practical (years 1 to 5)
Number of GCSEs -0.043 -0.034 -0.045 -0.055 -0.027
P = 0.288 P = 0.422 P = 0.269 P = 0.177 P = 0.501
n = 605 n = 552 n = 604 n = 605 n = 605
Mean points per GCSE 0.262 0.156 0.260 0.263 0.247
P<0.001 P<0.001 P<0.001 P<0.001 P<0.001
n = 599 n = 548 n = 598 n = 599 n = 599
Mean points per GCSE (corrected for censoring)d 0.277 ± 0.040 (0.204 to 0.360) 0.165 ± 0.0410 (0.092 to 0.250) 0.267 ± 0.035 (0.204 to 0.342) 0.274 ± 0.038 (0.202 to 0.356) 0.264 ± 0.039 (0.189 to 0.333)
Total GCSE points 0.128 0.083 0.117 0.120 0.130
P = 0.002 P = 0.053 P = 0.004 P = 0.003 P = 0.002
n = 597 n = 546 n = 596 n = 597 n = 597
Number of A-levels 0.137 0.154 0.106 0.148 0.112
P<0.001 P<0.001 P<0.004 P<0.001 P = 0.004
n = 667 n = 570 n = 667 n = 667 n = 667
Mean A-level grade 0.311 0.286 0.266 0.339 0.279
P<0.001 P<0.001 P<0.001 P<0.001 P<0.001
n = 668 n = 570 n = 667 n = 667 n = 667
Total points for three best A-levels 0.301 0.282 0.257 0.331 0.272
P<0.001 P<0.001 P<0.001 P<0.001 P<0.001
n = 668 n = 571 n = 668 n = 668 n = 668
Total points for three best A-levels (corrected for censoring)d 0.412 ± 0.045 (0.318 to 0.506) 0.396 ± 0.041 (0.309 to 0.473) 0.342 ± 0.036 (0.260 to 0.404) 0.444 ± 0.039(0.368 to 0.511) 0.362 ± 0.036 (0.281 to 0.443)
MRCP(UK) Part 1 mark 0.709 0.610 0.685 0.733 0.646
P<0.001 P<0.001 P<0.001 P<0.001 P<0.001
n = 252 n = 204 n = 252 n = 252 n = 252
MRCP(UK) Part 2 mark 0.656 0.526 0.651 0.669 0.625
P<0.001 P<0.001 P<0.001 P<0.001 P<0.001
n = 122 n = 94 n = 252 n = 252 n = 252
MRCP(UK) PACES mark 0.448 0.220 0.525 0.399 0.442
P<0.001 P = 0.146 P<0.001 P = 0.002 P<0.001
n = 59 n = 45 n = 59 n = 59 n = 59

Abbreviations: A-level, Advanced level; GCSE, General Certificate of Secondary Education; MRCP(UK), Membership of the Royal College of Physicians of the United Kingdom; OSCE, objective structured clinical examination; PACES, Practical Assessment of Clinical Examination Skills; UCLMS, University College London Medical School.

aPearson correlations of measures of performance at medical school with GCSEs, A-levels, and MRCP(UK).

bFor n = 600, the standard error of a correlation of 0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, and 0.7 is about 0.040, 0.039, 0.037, 0.034, 0.031, 0.026, and 0.021, respectively.

cValues significant at P<0.05 are shown in bold.

dCorrelations corrected for right-censorship are shown as the mean estimate ± standard error (95% CI).

McManus et al.

McManus et al. BMC Medicine 2013 11:242   doi:10.1186/1741-7015-11-242

Open Data