Table 1

Types of models involving health outcomes, from least to most complex.

Model type

Features

Data requirements


Demography

Epidemiology

Clinical


Static proportionate outcomes model

Reduction in cervical cancer due to vaccination is the product of effective vaccine coverage and cervical-cancer incidence caused by vaccine-type HPV

Population structure, birth and death rates

Cervical-cancer incidence, mortality and proportion caused by HPV 16/18, by age

None


Static progression model

Represents the natural history of disease from HPV infection to cervical cancer, usually in a single birth cohort

Population structure, birth and death rates

Cervical-cancer incidence, mortality and proportion caused by HPV 16/18, by age; female HPV prevalence and clearance by age

Uptake and efficacy of screening, diagnosis and treatment of cancer and pre-cancer


Transmission dynamic model

Captures HPV transmission from infected to susceptible individuals in the entire population

Population structure, birth and death rates, sexual behavior

Cervical-cancer incidence, mortality and proportion caused by HPV 16/18, by age; HPV prevalence and clearance by age and sex

Uptake and efficacy of screening, diagnosis and treatment of cancer and pre-cancer


Hybrid model

Uses a static progression model to capture disease natural history, and a dynamic model to capture infection transmission

Population structure, birth and death rates, sexual behavior

Cervical-cancer incidence, mortality and proportion caused by HPV 16/18, by age; HPV prevalence and clearance by age and sex

Uptake and efficacy of screening, diagnosis and treatment of cancer and pre-cancer


Jit et al. BMC Medicine 2013 11:23   doi:10.1186/1741-7015-11-23

Open Data