Table 5

Effects of pre-vaccination.

Country

Relative reduction in epidemic size, %a


Pre-vaccination 20%

Pre-vaccination 30%

Pre-vaccination 50%


China

27.3 to 28.2

46.3 to 48.2

98.9 to 99.3

Hungary

23.2 to 24.4

38.6 to 39.2

87.9 to 90.0

United States

20.5 to 21.8

35.2 to 36.2

92.4 to 95.5

Canada

21.5 to 22.6

37.5 to 38.3

93.4 to 95.6

Italy

23.0 to 24.4

38.3 to 39.0

90.2 to 91.8

Japan

23.4 to 26.8

38.1 to 40.1

85.5 to 89.8

Israel

22.9 to 24.8

37.8 to 38.8

84.3 to 86.4

France

22.0 to 24.2

36.6 to 38.1

84.4 to 86.8

Sweden

23.1 to 24.8

38.2 to 39.0

86.3 to 88.6

UK

22.2 to 24.6

36.6 to 38.4

84.7 to 88.4

Germany

22.6 to 24.2

37.7 to 38.6

88.9 to 90.6

Portugal

22.7 to 24.5

37.1 to 38.6

88.3 to 92.4

Finland

22.9 to 24.7

37.7 to 38.7

84.5 to 87.3

Austria

21.6 to 23.5

35.8 to 37.1

81.7 to 84.1

Ireland

22.0 to 24.0

36.2 to 37.6

83.0 to 86.6

Denmark

21.5 to 23.5

35.6 to 37.1

81.7 to 85.0

Turkey

26.5 to 27.0

46.4 to 49.6

95.4 to 95.8

Iceland

20.6 to 24.8

33.9 to 38.6

78.8 to 87.8

Belgium

23.2 to 24.8

38.6 to 39.4

89.1 to 91.1

Slovenia

21.5 to 23.3

35.3 to 36.8

76.4 to 81.1

Netherlands

21.7 to 24.7

36.3 to 38.4

85.5 to 89.5

Switzerland

21.0 to 24.0

34.4 to 36.8

77.5 to 81.9

Spain

22.4 to 23.7

37.7 to 39.0

91.7 to 93.7

Greece

23.2 to 24.8

38.6 to 39.5

86.1 to 87.7

Tunisia

24.5 to 25.7

41.0 to 42.1

90.9 to 92.0

Czech Republic

24.8 to 25.6

42.0 to 44.9

89.7 to 90.6

Norway

23.1 to 24.7

37.9 to 38.9

85.9 to 88.7


aRelative reduction of the epidemic size, using different hypothetical pre-vaccination scenarios, in the countries of the northern hemisphere in which vaccines were available during the 2009 to 2010 winter season. The relative reduction in the epidemic size was calculated as the relative reduction of the maximum of the 95% reference range, obtained from 2,000 stochastic realizations, in the reference stochastic forecast output set.

Tizzoni et al. BMC Medicine 2012 10:165   doi:10.1186/1741-7015-10-165

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