Table 4

Correlation of population variables and epidemic statistics as seen and predicted by the model.

Full dataset


Epidemic statistic

Population variable

Correlation observed in real dataa

Correlation predicted by the modela


r

P

r

P


Worldwide


Peak week

Air traffic to/from North America

-0.30

0.042

-0.30

0.044


Peak week

Longitudeb

0.27

0.071

0.42

0.003


Peak week

Latitudeb

-0.15

0.317

0.02

0.882


Peak week

Vaccine uptake

-0.37

0.069

-0.38

0.060


Attack rate reduction, %

Vaccine uptake

0.73

< 0.001


European countries only


Peak week

Intra-EU air traffic

-0.15

0.391

-0.48

0.003


Peak week

Air traffic to/from North America

-0.26

0.151

-0.37

0.003


Peak week

Longitudeb

0.54

< 0.001

0.74

< 0.001


Peak week

Latitudeb

-0.32

0.07

-0.23

0.178


Peak week

Vaccine uptake

-0.29

0.204

-0.28

0.212


Attack rate reduction, %

Vaccine uptake

0.69

< 0.001


aValues of the Pearson's correlation coefficient, r, along with the corresponding P value, were measured between the epidemic statistics and the population variables of the countries appearing in Figure 5.

bLongitude and latitude are those of the capital city of the country.

Tizzoni et al. BMC Medicine 2012 10:165   doi:10.1186/1741-7015-10-165

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