Table 1 

Epidemiological parameters.^{1} 

Parameter 
Description 
Value^{2} 
Sensitivity analysis range 


R_{0} 
Reference reproduction number in the Tropics 



α_{min} 
Minimal seasonality rescaling 



G_{t} 
Generation time, days^{3} 
3.6 (2.2 to 5.1) 



μ^{1} 
Mean infectious period, days^{3} 
2.5 (1.1 to 4.0) 



ε^{1} 
Average latency period, days 
1.1 days 
1.1 to 2.5 


r_{β} 
Relative infectiousness of asymptomatic individuals 
0.5 
0.1 to 0.8 


p_{a} 
Probability of becoming an asymptomatic individual 
0.33 
0.33 and 0.5 


p_{t} 
Probability of traveling of a symptomatic individual 
0.5 
0.4 to 0.6 


β 
Transmission rate 
μ^{1}R_{0}/(1p_{a}r_{β}p_{t}) 
As calculated from the reference range of R_{0} 


α_{max} 
Maximal seasonality rescaling 
1.1 
1.0 and 1.1 


^{1}Estimates from the Monte Carlo Maximum Likelihood analysis for various values of the parameter space explored. ^{2}The estimated values of R_{0 }and α_{min }for all the stochastic forecast outputs are reported in Table 3. ^{3}The G_{t}, μ^{1 }intervals were set in the MCML analysis and defined by the range of plausible constrained values sampled in the Monte Carlo approach that satisfied a likelihood ratio test at the 5% level (see text). 

Tizzoni et al. BMC Medicine 2012 10:165 doi:10.1186/1741701510165 