Table 1

Epidemiological parameters.1

Parameter

Description

Value2

Sensitivity analysis range


R0

Reference reproduction number in the Tropics


αmin

Minimal seasonality rescaling


Gt

Generation time, days3

3.6 (2.2 to 5.1)


μ-1

Mean infectious period, days3

2.5 (1.1 to 4.0)


ε-1

Average latency period, days

1.1 days

1.1 to 2.5


rβ

Relative infectiousness of asymptomatic individuals

0.5

0.1 to 0.8


pa

Probability of becoming an asymptomatic individual

0.33

0.33 and 0.5


pt

Probability of traveling of a symptomatic individual

0.5

0.4 to 0.6


β

Transmission rate

μ-1R0/(1-pa-rβpt)

As calculated from the reference range of R0


αmax

Maximal seasonality rescaling

1.1

1.0 and 1.1


1Estimates from the Monte Carlo Maximum Likelihood analysis for various values of the parameter space explored.

2The estimated values of R0 and αmin for all the stochastic forecast outputs are reported in Table 3.

3The Gt, μ-1 intervals were set in the MCML analysis and defined by the range of plausible constrained values sampled in the Monte Carlo approach that satisfied a likelihood ratio test at the 5% level (see text).

Tizzoni et al. BMC Medicine 2012 10:165   doi:10.1186/1741-7015-10-165

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