Peak timing in India and Canada: simulations and real data. (A) Peak weeks of the epidemic activity in the baseline stochastic forecast output (SFO) (gray) for eight Indian cities, ordered by decreasing latitude from top to bottom. Right: map of India, showing the Indian population distribution and the subdivision in North, South, and Central regions. (B) Peak weeks of the epidemic activity in the baseline SFO (gray) for seven Canadian provinces, ordered eastward from top to bottom. Right: map of Canada, where the Canadian provinces under study are highlighted in red. The 95% reference ranges of the simulated peak week were obtained by analysis of 2,000 stochastic realizations of the model for three different values of the seasonal rescaling factor, αmin = 0.6, 0.65, and 0.7. The peak weeks reported by the surveillance are shown as color gradients, whose limits correspond to the time interval where an incidence of greater than 80% of the maximum incidence was observed. Both maps were made exclusively for this manuscript and are not subject to copyright.
Tizzoni et al. BMC Medicine 2012 10:165 doi:10.1186/1741-7015-10-165