Table 2

Anticipated population gains and losses - cases of the condition prevented or caused if all children currently unvaccinated were vaccinated^a.

Condition

Expected gain (number prevented) under original assumptions

Expected gain (number prevented) applying efficacy rates from Lasbela baseline survey^b

Diarrhoea

277 per thousand

30 per thousand

Bronchopneumonia

61 per thousand

7 per thousand

Blindness

27 per thousand

3 per thousand

Otitis media

25 per thousand

3 per thousand

Death

14 per thousand

15 per ten thousand

Convulsions

3 per thousand

3 per ten thousand

Post-infectious

4 per ten thousand

5 per hundred thousand

encephalitis

7 per million

7 per ten million

SSPE

Losses (original assumptions)

Losses after baseline survey

Anaphylaxis

7 per ten million

7 per hundred million

^a Sources for all calculations are the same as in Table 1. Differences in gains are due to revised assumptions following the baseline survey.

^b Gain = [RDx(PRIxVER)] × 0.361, where RD = Risk difference, PRI = proportion requiring intervention (0.49), and VER = Vaccine efficacy rate (0.415).

The bold-font rows show the conditions for which the data are most applicable to the South Asia region or, at least, developing country conditions - diarrhoea, pneumonia, blindness and death.

Ledogar et al. BMC International Health and Human Rights 2009 9(Suppl 1):S6   doi:10.1186/1472-698X-9-S1-S6