Table 1

Transition probabilities
State (From state → To state) Variable Formula
Death
  Death → Death λi =1
  Any state → Death αi =

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Status quo [no vaccination]
Healthy
  Healthy → Herpes zoster βi =

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  Healthy → Healthy γi = 1 - αi - βi
Herpes zoster
  Herpes Zoster → Death δi =

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  Herpes Zoster → PHN ϵi =

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  Herpes Zoster → Healthy after disease ζi =  1 - αi - δi - ϵi
PHN
  PHN → PHN ηi =

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  PHN → Healthy after disease θi = 1 - αi - ηi
Healthy after disease
  Healthy after disease → Healthy after disease κi =

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  Healthy after disease → Herpes zoster ιi = 1 - αi - κi
Vaccine-Scenario [adapted transition probability due to vaccine efficacy (VE)]
Healthy
  Healthy → Herpes zoster βiV =

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VEiHZ =

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  Healthy → Healthy γiV =

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HZ
  Herpes zoster → PHN ϵiV =

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VEiPHN =

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Healthy after disease
  Healthy after Disease → Healthy after disease κiV =

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  Healthy after Disease → Herpes zoster ιiV =

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p = probability of death with respect to cycle-length; i = age = Start_Age +(n_cycles); χA(x) = Indicator function; σ = Tunnel (counter for cycles staying in state); DPHN = Duration of PHN; DRec = Duration until Recurrence is possible; v = indicating the vaccine scenario; j = Age at Vaccination; μ = Age at Vaccination plus n years; I = Age-group specific Incidencefrom_state→to_state with respect to cycle-length; VEiHZ = Vaccine efficacy protecting against HZ; IVEjHZ = Initial Vaccine efficacy protecting against HZ by age at vaccination; VEiPHN = Vaccine efficacy protecting against PHN by certain age in model; IVEjPHN = Initial Vaccine efficacy protecting against PHN by age at vaccination; π = Waning rate with respect to cycle-length.

Ultsch et al.

Ultsch et al. BMC Health Services Research 2013 13:359   doi:10.1186/1472-6963-13-359

Open Data