# Table 1

Transition probabilities
State (From state → To state) Variable Formula
Death
Death → Death λi =1
Any state → Death αi =

Status quo [no vaccination]
Healthy
Healthy → Herpes zoster βi =

Healthy → Healthy γi = 1 - αi - βi
Herpes zoster
Herpes Zoster → Death δi =

Herpes Zoster → PHN ϵi =

Herpes Zoster → Healthy after disease ζi =  1 - αi - δi - ϵi
PHN
PHN → PHN ηi =

PHN → Healthy after disease θi = 1 - αi - ηi
Healthy after disease
Healthy after disease → Healthy after disease κi =

Healthy after disease → Herpes zoster ιi = 1 - αi - κi
Vaccine-Scenario [adapted transition probability due to vaccine efficacy (VE)]
Healthy
Healthy → Herpes zoster βiV =

VEiHZ =

Healthy → Healthy γiV =

HZ
Herpes zoster → PHN ϵiV =

VEiPHN =

Healthy after disease
Healthy after Disease → Healthy after disease κiV =

Healthy after Disease → Herpes zoster ιiV =

p = probability of death with respect to cycle-length; i = age = Start_Age +(n_cycles); χA(x) = Indicator function; σ = Tunnel (counter for cycles staying in state); DPHN = Duration of PHN; DRec = Duration until Recurrence is possible; v = indicating the vaccine scenario; j = Age at Vaccination; μ = Age at Vaccination plus n years; I = Age-group specific Incidencefrom_state→to_state with respect to cycle-length; VEiHZ = Vaccine efficacy protecting against HZ; IVEjHZ = Initial Vaccine efficacy protecting against HZ by age at vaccination; VEiPHN = Vaccine efficacy protecting against PHN by certain age in model; IVEjPHN = Initial Vaccine efficacy protecting against PHN by age at vaccination; π = Waning rate with respect to cycle-length.

Ultsch et al.

Ultsch et al. BMC Health Services Research 2013 13:359   doi:10.1186/1472-6963-13-359