Table 4

Area under the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve of the case-mix based logistic regression models to identify patients located above the 95th percentile of health spending
Demographic variables only ACG-PM CRG DCG-HCC
Out of the box AUC 95% CI AUC 95% CI AUC 95% CI AUC 95% CI
Variables:
A&S + dx + rx + cost percentiles (age < 65) 0,816 (0.813 - 0.818)
A&S + dx + rx + cost percentiles (age 65+) 0,761 (0.760 - 0.764)
A&S + dx 0,787 (0.786 - 0.789) 0,824 (0.822 - 0.825)
A&S + dx + rx + cost 0,852 (0.851 - 0.853)
Recalibration
Variables:
A&S (Age and sex) 0,774 (0.773 - 0.776)
A&S + Only Dx 0,845 (0.844 - 0.847) 0,797 (0.795 - 0.798) 0,846 (0.845 - 0.848)
A&S + Only Rx 0,833 (0.831 - 0.834) 0,837 (0.836 - 0.838)
A&S + Dx + Rx 0,847 (0.853 - 0.856) 0,858 (0.857 - 0.859)
A&S + Dx + Rx + cost percentile 0,868 (0.866- 0.869) 0.848* (0.847 - 0.849) 0,868 (0.867 - 0.869)
A&S + Dx + Rx + cost percentile + DI 0,868 (0.867 - 0.869) 0.848* (0.847 - 0.850) 0,868

*The CRG models do not include prescriptions.

Age groups: 14–17; 18–34; 35–44; 45–54; 55–64; 65–69; 70–74; 75–79; 80–84; 85 + .

Cost groups in percentiles: 0–1; 2–10; 11–25; 26–50; 51–75; 76–90; 91–93; 94–95; 96–97; 98 + .

Dx diagnoses, Rx Prescriptions, DI Deprivation index.

Orueta et al.

Orueta et al. BMC Health Services Research 2013 13:269   doi:10.1186/1472-6963-13-269

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