Table 3 |
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|
Life-saving proportion: women with screen-detected cancers that have their lives saved by mammography. |
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|
Age |
Development risk/1000* |
CCDR/1000† |
Death risk/1000‡ |
10% RRR§ |
15% RRR |
20% RRR |
20% NND∥ |
25% RRR |
30% RRR |
20% RRR No Rx¶ |
|
|
||||||||||
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
||||
|
40 |
31.9 |
25.5 |
4.8 |
1.9 |
2.8 |
3.7 |
27 |
4.7 |
5.6 |
4.7 |
|
45 |
41.9 |
33.5 |
6.8 |
2.0 |
3.0 |
4.1 |
25 |
5.1 |
6.1 |
5.1 |
|
50 |
51.0 |
40.8 |
8.8 |
2.2 |
3.2 |
4.3 |
23 |
5.4 |
6.5 |
5.3 |
|
55 |
59.2 |
47.3 |
10.5 |
2.2 |
3.3 |
4.4 |
23 |
5.5 |
6.7 |
5.2 |
|
60 |
64.4 |
51.5 |
11.8 |
2.3 |
3.4 |
4.6 |
22 |
5.7 |
6.9 |
5.1 |
|
65 |
66.3 |
53.0 |
12.7 |
2.4 |
3.6 |
4.8 |
21 |
6.0 |
7.2 |
5.0 |
|
|
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|
* Cumulative 15-year development risk for breast cancer for average women, from Figure 1 [28]. † Cumulative cancer detection rate (CCDR) over 15 years assumes a cumulative sensitivity of 80% from repeated screening. ‡ Breast cancer screen-free absolute death risk is from Figure 1. § The proportion is the screen-free absolute death risk multiplied by the relative risk reduction (RRR), and then divided by the CCDR. ∥ Number of cancers needed to be detected (NND) is the reciprocal of the life-saving proportion. ¶ Assumes maximum prescreening era (1978–1980) 15-year absolute death risk, with no adjustment for improved therapy. |
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|
Keen and Keen BMC Medical Informatics and Decision Making 2009 9:18 doi:10.1186/1472-6947-9-18 |
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