Table 3

Mean percent of outbreak signals detected by six aberration detection algorithms, tested on six outbreak sizes, at an alert rate of 0.01

Size:

C1

C2

C3

GLM

EWMA 0.4

EWMA 0.9

F value

p-value


5 cases

Mean

10.4%

11.9%

9.6%

16.0%

10.3%

12.0%

9.55

<0.0001

Lower CI*

8.9%

10.5%

8.3%

14.1%

9.0%

10.6%

Upper CI

11.8%

13.3%

10.9%

18.0%

11.7%

13.5%

10 cases

Mean

16.4%

18.8%

15.4%

30.2%

20.2%

22.9%

10.01

<0.0001

Lower CI

13.7%

16.2%

13.0%

25.7%

16.7%

19.0%

Upper CI

19.2%

21.5%

17.9%

34.6%

23.8%

26.7%

20 cases

Mean

26.7%

32.2%

29.4%

48.4%

34.8%

38.4%

8.17

<0.0001

Lower CI

22.1%

27.3%

24.3%

42.5%

29.0%

32.7%

Upper CI

31.3%

37.2%

34.5%

54.3%

40.6%

44.2%

30 cases

Mean

38.9%

46.2%

42.5%

63.0%

47.8%

52.5%

7.42

<0.0001

Lower CI

33.3%

40.0%

36.0%

57.2%

41.3%

46.1%

Upper CI

44.5%

52.4%

49.0%

68.7%

54.3%

58.9%

40 cases

Mean

47.1%

53.7%

50.0%

71.6%

56.4%

61.6%

8.11

<0.0001

Lower CI

41.2%

47.4%

43.2%

66.6%

49.8%

55.4%

Upper CI

53.0%

59.9%

56.9%

76.6%

63.0%

67.7%

50 cases

Mean

52.9%

58.8%

53.8%

77.4%

62.7%

67.9%

9.83

<0.0001

Lower CI

47.0%

52.8%

47.0%

72.9%

56.5%

62.2%

Upper CI

58.7%

64.8%

60.6%

81.9%

68.9%

73.7%

F value

35.81

38.67

31.48

64.53

37.68

46.16

p-value

<0.0001

<0.0001

<0.0001

<0.0001

<0.0001

<0.0001


* CI = 95% confidence interval

Jackson et al. BMC Medical Informatics and Decision Making 2007 7:6   doi:10.1186/1472-6947-7-6

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