Table 2

Mean percent of outbreak signals detected by six aberration detection algorithms, tested on five outbreak distributions, at an alert rate of 0.01

Distribution:

C1

C2

C3

GLM

EWMA 0.4

EWMA 0.9

F value

p-value


Airborne bioweapon

Mean

37.4%

41.5%

36.5%

56.5%

41.6%

46.9%

12.85

<0.0001

Lower CI*

33.5%

37.5%

32.4%

52.4%

37.5%

42.7%

Upper CI

41.2%

45.4%

40.7%

60.5%

45.8%

51.1%

Point-source

Mean

38.1%

41.7%

38.0%

56.5%

42.4%

47.5%

9.49

<0.0001

Lower CI

33.9%

37.3%

33.5%

52.1%

37.7%

42.8%

Upper CI

42.3%

46.2%

42.6%

60.9%

47.0%

52.1%

Community transmission: close contact

Mean

32.2%

37.2%

34.6%

53.0%

40.1%

43.7%

12.11

<0.0001

Lower CI

28.3%

33.1%

30.2%

48.7%

35.6%

39.3%

Upper CI

36.0%

41.4%

38.9%

57.3%

44.6%

48.1%

Community transmission: airborne

Mean

32.1%

37.5%

34.8%

52.8%

41.2%

44.1%

11.57

<0.0001

Lower CI

28.3%

33.4%

30.4%

48.4%

36.7%

39.6%

Upper CI

36.0%

41.7%

39.2%

57.2%

45.8%

48.6%

Community transmission: multi-modal

Mean

28.4%

37.4%

34.4%

52.6%

40.9%

43.9%

15.05

<0.0001

Lower CI

25.1%

33.2%

30.1%

48.2%

36.3%

39.4%

Upper CI

31.7%

41.5%

38.8%

57.0%

45.5%

48.4%

F value

4.39

1.22

0.05

0.86

0.13

0.65

p-value

0.0016

0.30

0.74

0.4881

0.97

0.63


* CI = 95% confidence interval

Jackson et al. BMC Medical Informatics and Decision Making 2007 7:6   doi:10.1186/1472-6947-7-6

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