Figure 5.

Results on validation data for Respiratory Complaints. Prospective data (June 1, 2002 through May 31, 2003 (a) Daily, predicted, and upper control limit for respiratory counts ; (b) Scaled forecast errors for respiratory counts; (c) Page's statistic applied to the same forecast errors. A control value of 3.3 bfor Page's statistic results in an approximate theoretical 2.5% false alarm rate when forecast errors are Gaussian.