Table 3

Sensitivity and Specificity of Diarrheal Remedy Sales Model-Generated and Randomly Selected Signals

All Outbreaks

Outbreaks with ≥ 50 Cases

Outbreaks with ≥ 100 Cases

Sensitivity

Specificity

Sensitivity

Specificity

Sensitivity

Specificity

Over-the-counter drug IMA(1) Signal

(6/11/06, 1/29/06, 10/15/06, 6/10/07)*

4% (4/94)

100% (11/11)

4% (1/26)

97% (76/79)

14% (1/7)

97% (95/98)

Random Signals 1

(1/29/06, 6/11/06, 9/9/07, 2/18/07)*

4% (4/94)

100% (11/11)

8% (2/26)

97% (77/79)

14% (1/7)

97% (95/98)

Random Signals 2

(2/12/06, 7/9/06, 12/3/06, 9/23/07)*

3% (3/94)

91% (10/11)

4% (1/26)

97% (76/79)

0% (0/7)

96% (94/98)

Random Signals 3

(5/21/06, 1/3/07, 9/16/07, 12/9/07)*

3% (3/94)

100%(11/11)

4% (1/26)

97% (77/79)

0% (0/7)

97% (95/98)

* First day of week for each model generated and randomly generated signal.

Kirian and Weintraub BMC Medical Informatics and Decision Making 2010 10:39   doi:10.1186/1472-6947-10-39