Table 4

Characteristics of the daily number of respiratory syndrome or influenza-like illness cases during baseline and the test period (week 36 to week 52, 2009), test statistics on the probability distribution of daily counts, the identification of day-of-the-week effects, and Poisson CUSUM parameters during individual baseline periods
EMD-AT EP-AT EP-BE ED-BE ED-ES
Respiratory syndrome ILI ILI ILI ILI
Period Baseline* Test Baseline* Test Baseline* Test Baseline* Test Baseline* Test
Mean daily count 4.7 4.8 0.07 0.2 4.2 5.0 13.6 17.9 4.1 7.3
  Standard deviation 2.2 2.1 0.3 0.5 2.1 2.5 4.0 6.0 3.0 8.0
  95% Confidence Interval 4.6-4.9 4.4-5.5 0.05-0.09 0.2-0.3 3.9-4.5 4.5-5.4 13.0-14.2 16.8-19.0 3.3-4.9 5.9-8.7
Median daily count 5 5 0 0 4 5 13 18 3 5
Minimum daily count 0 1 0 0 0 1 5 5 0 0
Maximum daily count 15 12 2 2 10 14 27 34 15 36
Day-of-the-week effect yes no no no yes
evaluated by Kruskal-Wallis test p = 0.007 p = 0.43 p = 0.70 p = 0.19 p = 0.04
Mean daily count
  Monday 4.7 0.08 4.1 14.6 2.7
  Tuesday 4.4 0.08 4.0 12.3 4.9
  Wednesday 4.4 0.03 3.9 12.5 5.5
  Thursday 5.0 0.08 3.6 13.7 4.8
  Friday 4.5 0.12 4.8 14.6 3.4
  Saturday 4.7 0.08 4.3 13.2 5.5
  Sunday 5.4 0.05 4.6 14.4 2.0
Poisson CUSUM calibration$
no day-of-the-week variation mean = 0.07 mean = 4.2 mean = 13.6
k = 1 k = 5 k =14
S0 = 1 S0 = 4 S0 = 10
h = 2 h = 7 h = 20
day-of-the-week variation
  stratum 1 Sunday Sunday, Monday
mean = 5.4 mean = 2.3
k = 6
S0 = 5 k = 3
h = 10 S0 = 3
h = 5
  stratum 2 Monday-Saturday Tuesday-Saturday
mean = 4.6 mean = 4.8
k = 5 k = 5
S0 = 4 S0 = 4
h = 7 h = 7

*baseline = baseline period for Poisson CUSUM calibration: EMD-AT: 1/2005-12/2008 (except December to March); EP-AT: 1/2006-12/2008 (except November to March); EP-BE: 3/2009-8/2009); ED-BE: 3/2009-8/2009; ED-ES: 3/2009-8/2009.

test = test period for validity and timeliness assessment; covers the autumn winter wave of pandemic A(H1N1) influenza in 2009 (week 36/2009 to week 52/2009).

$Poisson CUSUM calibration: mean = baseline mean; k = reference value; S0 = head start value; h = threshold value.

Rosenkötter et al.

Rosenkötter et al. BMC Public Health 2013 13:905   doi:10.1186/1471-2458-13-905

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