Table 1

Observed and forecasted asthma incidence, 1996 to 2022 in Ontario
    Observed
    Forecasted
1996 2009 2012 2022
Number Rate Number Rate Rate (95%CI*) Number Rate (95%CI*) ETS Model
Ontario population 11 082 903 11 838 462
Incidence per 1,000 population
Age groups in years:
5-9 22 101 32.7 18 092 27.9 27.9 (16.0, 48.9) 23 500 27.9 (8.7, 90.1) M, N, N
10-19 12 606 9.3 8 444 6.0 5.8 (4.8, 7.2) 9 500 5.8 (4.6, 7.4) A, Ad, N
20-39 20 683 6.1 9 537 2.9 2.7 (2.2, 3.3) 10 200 2.5 (2.1, 3.0) A, A, N
40-59 15 395 5.8 10 977 3.1 3.1 (1.9, 4.8) 12 300 3.1 (1.2, 8.2) M, A, N
60+ 13 246 7.7 7 970 3.6 3.6 (2.4, 5.4) 13 600 3.6 (1.5, 8.6) M, M, N
Setting:
Rural 10 624 8.7 4 568 3.2 2.5 (2.3, 2.6) NA 1.1 (1.0, 1.1) A, A, N
Urban 73 294 7.8 50 429 4.8 4.3 (3.9, 4.8) NA 3.0 (2.4, 3.7) A, A, N
Marginalization quintiles: A, A, N
1 (least marginalized) 15 323 5.7 15 323 4.8 4.6 (4.4, 4.9) NA 4.5 (4.3, 4.7) A, Ad, N
2 17 311 7.4 17 311 4.6 4.1 (3.9, 4.3) NA 3.1 (3.0, 3.3) M, M, N
3 16 834 8.3 16 834 4.4 3.8 (3.5, 4.2) NA 2.3 (1.9, 2.8) A, A, N
4 15 812 9.4 15 812 4.4 3.7 (3.3, 4.1) NA 2.0 (1.5, 2.7) A, A, N
5 (most marginalized) 15 337 10.5 15 337 5.0 4.2 (3.8, 4.7) NA 2.4 (1.9, 3.0) A, A, N

*95%CI = 95% Confidence Intervals.

Note: NA = Not applicable since no projected population data available, ETS = error, trend, seasonality, M = multiplicative, N = none, A = Additive, Ad = damped additive.

To et al.

To et al. BMC Public Health 2013 13:254   doi:10.1186/1471-2458-13-254

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