Table 2

Model parameters and cost data
Parameters Values Source
Epidemiological parameters
Symptomatic infectiousness timeline 0.5 day latent (non infectious), 1 day asymptomatic; 2 days peak symptomatic; 2.5 days post-peak symptomatic [30]
Asymptomatic infectiousness timeline 0.5 day latent; 5.5 days asymptomatic [30]
Asymptomatic infectiousness 0.5 [30]
peak symptomatic infectiousness 1.0 -
post-peak symptomatic infectiousness 0.5 [30]
Probability of asymptomatic infection 0.32 [33]
Probability of adult withdrawal from work if sick 0.5 (0.25,0.75)* -
Probability of child withdrawal from school if sick 0.9 (0.5,1.0)* -
Basic Reproduction Number R0 and Attack Rate (%) R0 = 1.5, AR = 24.4% (R0 = 1.8 and AR = 32.4%, R0 = 2.5, AR = 43.8%)* -
Intervention parameters
Antiviral infectiousness reduction 66% (33%, 89%)* [35,40]
Antiviral susceptibility reduction 85% (43%, 90%)* [35,40]
Prophylaxis symptom reduction probability 50% [35]
Diagnosis delay 12 h -
Diagnosis ratio 50% -
Maximum antiviral courses given for treatment 1 course per person for 5 days -
Maximum antiviral courses given for prophylaxis 1 course per person for 10 days -
School Closure Duration 2 weeks, 8 weeks and continuously -
School Closure Trigger 20 to 40 community cases [5]
School Closure withdrawal probability 1.0 (0.5, 0.75)* -
Workforce Reduction Duration 4 weeks and continuously -
Workforce Reduction Trigger 2 weeks after first case -
Workforce Reduction attendance probability 0.5 (0.25, 0.75)* -
Community Contact Reduction (CCR) Duration 4 weeks and continuously -
CCR Trigger 2 weeks after first case -
CCR withdrawal probability 0.5 (0.25, 0.75)* -
Pandemic severity parameters
Severity Category 1 (CFR < 0.1%) Case Fatality Rate = 0.1% [42]
Severity Category 2 (CFR 0.1% - 0.5%) Case Fatality Rate = 0.25% [42]
Severity Category 3 (CFR 0.5% - 1.0%) Case Fatality Rate = 0.75% [42]
Severity Category 4 (CFR 1.0% - 2.0%) Case Fatality Rate = 1.5% [42]
Severity Category 5 (CFR > = 2.0%) Case Fatality Rate = 2.5% [42]
Hospitalisation / fatality ratio 32:1
ICU / fatality ratio 3:1
Average hospital stay (days) 4 [1,43]
Average ICU stay (days) 7 [1,43]
Economic analysis parameters
Average wages (per week) $836 [44]
Average school closure cost (per student per day) $19.22 [45]
Average GP visit cost $106.97 [46]
Average hospitalization cost (per day) $1042 [46]
Average ICU cost (per day) $2084 [46,47]
Antiviral cost per course $24.81 [46]
Antiviral dispensing cost per course $31.22 [46]
Antiviral shelf life 5 years [48]
Mean time between pandemics 30.3 years -
Discount Rate (annually) 3% [49]

* indicates alternative values analysed in sensitivity analyses.

Kelso et al.

Kelso et al. BMC Public Health 2013 13:211   doi:10.1186/1471-2458-13-211

Open Data