Table 1

Epidemiological estimations for a mild and a severe pandemic scenario
Mild baseline scenario* Severe baseline scenario*
Overall attack rate 421,704 (38.34%) 422,839 (38.44%)
Clinical attack rate 295,237 (26.84%) 297,295 (27.03%)
Peak prevalence of symptomatic cases 10,034 (0.91%) 10,017 (0.91%)
Peak prevalence hospitalised cases 176 (0.02%) 176 (0.02%)
Critical outpatients (over total pandemic) 11 (0.001%) 3018 (0.27%)
Case fatality rate 115 (0.01%) 3,543 (0.32%)

* Estimations made for a mild and severe baseline scenario for a region in Lao PDR (Vientiane Prefecture and Vientiane Province) assuming actual available resources, a basic reproduction number of 1.4 and 10% contact reduction. No other interventions were assumed and only severe cases were treated with antivirals. Values are provided in absolute numbers with the percentage of total population size (n = 1,099,889).

Stein et al.

Stein et al. BMC Public Health 2012 12:870   doi:10.1186/1471-2458-12-870

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