Open Access Software

Development of a resource modelling tool to support decision makers in pandemic influenza preparedness: The AsiaFluCap Simulator

Mart Lambertus Stein12*, James W Rudge3, Richard Coker3, Charlie van der Weijden4, Ralf Krumkamp56, Piya Hanvoravongchai7, Irwin Chavez8, Weerasak Putthasri9, Bounlay Phommasack10, Wiku Adisasmito11, Sok Touch12, Le Minh Sat13, Yu-Chen Hsu14, Mirjam Kretzschmar12 and Aura Timen1

Author Affiliations

1 National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, Centre for Infectious Disease Control, Bilthoven, 3720, BA, The Netherlands

2 Utrecht Centre for Infection Dynamics, University Medical Centre Utrecht, Heidelberglaan 100, Utrecht, 3584, CX, Netherlands

3 Communicable Disease Policy Research Group, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Mahidol University, Satharanasukwisit Building, 420/1 Rajvithi Road, Bangkok, 10400, Thailand

4 Municipal Health Service (GGD), Flevoland, Post box 1120, Lelystad, 8200 BC, The Netherlands

5 Bernhard Nocht Institute for Tropical Medicine, Bernhard Nocht Str. 74, Hamburg, 20359, Germany

6 Hamburg University of Applied Sciences, Lohbrügger Kirchstrasse 65, Hamburg, 21033, Germany

7 Department of Preventive and Social Medicine, Faculty of Medicine Chulalongkorn University, 1873 Rama 4 Road, Pathumwan, Bangkok, 10330, Thailand

8 Faculty of Tropical Medicine, Mahidol University, 420/6 Rajvithi Road, Bangkok, 10400, Thailand

9 International Health Policy Program - Thailand, Ministry of Public Health, Tiwanond Road, Amphur Muang, Nonthaburi, 11000, Thailand

10 National Emerging Infectious Diseases Coordination Office, Ministry of Health, Simoung, Sisatanak District, Vientiane, Lao PDR

11 Faculty of Public Health, University of Indonesia, UI Campus, Depok, 16424, Indonesia

12 Department of Communicable Disease Control, Ministry of Health, No. 151-153 Kampuchea Krom Blvd, Phnom Penh, Cambodia

13 Ministry of Science and Technology of the Socialist Republic of Vietnam, 113 Tran Duy Hung street, Ha Noi, Vietnam

14 Centers for Disease Control, R.O.C. (Taiwan), Taipei City, 10050, Taiwan R.O.C

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BMC Public Health 2012, 12:870  doi:10.1186/1471-2458-12-870

Published: 12 October 2012

Additional files

Additional file 1:

File format: Adobe Acrobat Document (.pdf) Title: Disease model Structure and Assumptions in the AsiaFluCap Simulator. Description: Detailed description of the disease model structure and assumptions.

Format: PDF Size: 125KB Download file

This file can be viewed with: Adobe Acrobat Reader

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Additional file 2:

File format: Adobe Acrobat Document (.pdf) Title: Table disease model parameters and values: non-scenario specific values. Description: Table containing the non-scenario specific disease parameter values (with ranges and references) used in the AsiaFluCap Simulator.

Format: PDF Size: 146KB Download file

This file can be viewed with: Adobe Acrobat Reader

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Additional file 3:

File format: Adobe Acrobat Document (.pdf) Title: Table disease model parameters and values: scenario specific. Description: Table containing the disease parameter values (with ranges and references) for each of the three included pandemic scenarios in the AsiaFluCap Simulator.

Format: PDF Size: 136KB Download file

This file can be viewed with: Adobe Acrobat Reader

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Additional file 4:

File format: Adobe Acrobat Document (.pdf) Title: Resource model structure and assumptions. Description: Detailed description of the resource model and assumptions, explaining how resources were connected to the underlying disease model.

Format: PDF Size: 326KB Download file

This file can be viewed with: Adobe Acrobat Reader

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Additional file 5:

File format: Adobe Acrobat Document (.pdf) Title: Resource model parameters and values. Description: Table containing all resources model parameters and values (with references) used in the AsiaFluCap Simulator.

Format: PDF Size: 163KB Download file

This file can be viewed with: Adobe Acrobat Reader

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Additional file 6:

File format: TIFF file (.tif) Title: Main menu of the AsiaFluCap Simulator interface. Description: A screenshot of the main menu of the tool in which users can select provinces/districts (in screenshot are provinces in Thailand displayed), and enter the sub-menus of the interface.

Format: TIFF Size: 1.1MB Download file

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Additional file 7:

File format: TIFF file (.tif) Title: Screenshot of the pandemic scenario menu of the AsiaFluCap Simulator interface. Description: A screenshot of the menu in which users can choose one of the three pandemic scenarios, change the basic reproduction number, and include contact reduction for their simulations.

Format: TIFF Size: 1.7MB Download file

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Additional file 8:

File format: TIFF file (.tif) Title: Screenshot of the depletion rate menu of the AsiaFluCap Simulator interface. Description: A screenshot of the menu in which users can change depletion rates for different hospitalised cases (e.g. normal hospitalised and ventilated cases), and the proportions of cases receiving the resources. Buttons with a question mark explain definitions and assumptions related to resources. The reset button can be used to return to default values.

Format: TIFF Size: 1.5MB Download file

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Additional file 9:

File format: Adobe Acrobat Document (.pdf) Title: Sensitivity analysis performed with the AsiaFluCap Simulator. Description: Simulations were done for a region in Lao PDR (Vientiane Prefecture and Vientiane Province, n = 1,099,889) for a mild, moderate and severe pandemic scenario, and assuming different values for R0 (1.2, 1.4, 1.6, 1.8, 2.0 and 2.5) and no interventions (e.g. contact reduction, vaccination, etc.). A: Number of hospitalised cases when assuming sufficient hospital beds available in the region. B: Number of hospitalised cases when running simulations with actual available resources in the region. C: Cumulative number of deaths due to resource gaps (calculated by subtracting the number of deaths during scenarios simulated at A from the number of deaths estimated from the scenarios simulated at B).

Format: PDF Size: 715KB Download file

This file can be viewed with: Adobe Acrobat Reader

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