Table 4

Financial outcomes of all risk factors if feasible targets achieved, corrected for joint effects

All 6 risk factors

95% Uncertainty Interval

AUD millions

Mean

Lower Limit

Upper Limit


Potential opportunity costs FCA

Production gains/(losses)

473

(2)

1,155

Recruitment/training costs

79

n/a

n/a

Leisure based production

110

(361)

602

Home based production

248

(69)

568

Total production FCA

830

(109)

1,843

Health sector offsets

1,504

1,504

1,504

Total Opportunity Cost Savings FCA

2,334

1,395

3,347

Sensitivity analysis using Human Capital Approach (HCA)

Financial Outcomes HCA

Production gains/(losses)

1,196

(648)

3,070

Leisure based production

110

(361)

602

Home based production

248

(69)

568

Total production HCA

1,553

(435)

3,569

Health sector offsets

1,504

1,504

1,504

Total Opportunity Cost Savings HCA

3,057

1,069

5,073


No probabilistic uncertainty analysis was conducted for health sector offsets because we were unable to quantify uncertainty for these point estimates. Taxation is treated as a transfer payment and should not be added to production effects or health sector offsets. HCA: Human Capital Approach; FCA Friction Cost Approach (preferred conservative estimate). Leisure and home based production estimates are based on persons 15+ years. Production gains/(losses) and taxation effects are based on persons 15-64 years. Recruitment and training costs are included in production gains/losses using the FCA, but not counted using the HCA. Values are net present value using a 3% discount rate. Numbers in brackets ( ) indicate the possibility of losses resulting from achieving the target, rather than gains.

Cadilhac et al. BMC Public Health 2011 11:483   doi:10.1186/1471-2458-11-483

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