Additional file 9.
Figure S2. Survival Receiver Operating Characteristic curve for recurrence at 36 months in the test set. Using a high threshold to define high-risk patients predicts a majority of recurrences (true positives) at a low false-positive rate (20%). While we maintained the standard median cutoff for this study due to the limited sample size, a larger study in the future may be able to further tune the cutoff threshold to optimize sensitivity and specificity in the context of the relative risks that treatment options informed by this prognostic score entail. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) for recurrence within 36 months is 0.73, which is an improvement over the expected AUC of 0.5 for non-predictive risk scores.
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Reis et al. BMC Cancer 2011 11:437 doi:10.1186/1471-2407-11-437