Open Access Research article

Estimated glomerular filtration rate as an independent predictor of atherosclerotic vascular disease in older women

Joshua R Lewis12*, Wai Lim13, Satvinder S Dhaliwal4, Kun Zhu12, Ee Mun Lim12, Peter L Thompson5 and Richard L Prince12

Author Affiliations

1 University of Western Australia, School of Medicine and Pharmacology, Sir Charles Gairdner Hospital Unit, Perth, Australia

2 Department of Endocrinology and Diabetes, Sir Charles Gairdner Hospital, Perth, Australia

3 Department of Renal Medicine, Sir Charles Gairdner Hospital, Perth, Australia

4 School of Public Health, Curtin University, Perth, Australia

5 Dept. of Cardiovascular Medicine, Sir Charles Gairdner Hospital, Perth, Australia

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BMC Nephrology 2012, 13:58  doi:10.1186/1471-2369-13-58

Published: 16 July 2012



Estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) levels have been shown to predict atherosclerotic vascular disease hospitalization and mortality. We sought to investigate the role of renal function in the prediction of 10-year atherosclerotic vascular hospitalization and deaths in an unselected population of elderly women in and compared these predictions to Framingham equations.


Complete 10-year verified mortality and hospitalization discharge records for atherosclerotic vascular disease was collected for a prospective study of 1,239 unselected female subject’s ≥ 70 from the Calcium Intake Fracture Outcome Study (CAIFOS) with 10 years of follow-up. eGFR was compared to the current Framingham risk scores.


The eGFR at baseline using the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease Study (MDRD) equation was 65.2 ± 14.5 mL/min/1.73 m2 and 66.3 ± 13.5 mL/min/1.73 m2 using the Chronic Kidney Disease EPIdemiology (CKD-EPI) equation. Over 10 years 30% of participants sustained an ASVD hospitalization or death. For every standard deviation (SD) reduction in eGFR using MDRD the odds ratio (OR) for ASVD hospitalization and deaths increased by 1.34 (1.18-1.53), P < 0.001and 1.31 (1.14-1.50), P < 0.001 in a model adjusted for Framingham 10-year general cardiovascular risk. Addition of eGFR by the MDRD equation to Framingham risk factors improved the net reclassification index by 5.9%, P = 0.018 and the integrated discrimination improvement by 0.010 ± 0.003, P < 0.001 Similar results were seen using the CKD-EPI equation.


Estimated glomerular filtration rate predicts ASVD outcomes independently of Framingham risk score predictions in elderly women and improves clinical prediction particularly of early ASVD.