Table 1

Forecasted total attack and mortality rates for two pandemic profiles (R0, max = 1.5 and GI = 2 versus R0, max = 2.2 and GI = 3.1)

Scenario

Total attack rate (%)

Total attack rate North (%)

Total attack rate South (%)

Total attack rate Tropics (%)

Mortality rate (%)

R0, max = 1.5

GI = 2

R0, max = 2.2

GI = 3.1

R0, max = 1.5

GI = 2

R0, max = 2.2

GI = 3.1

R0, max = 1.5

GI = 2

R0, max = 2.2

GI = 3.1

R0, max = 1.5

GI = 2

R0, max = 2.2

GI = 3.1

R0, max = 1.5

GI = 2

R0, max = 2.2

GI = 3.1


No vaccination

46

77

62

86

58

86

19

62

0.14

0.23

Vaccination in developed countries (14%)

37

71

47

74

55

86

17

62

0.11

0.21

Vaccination in all countries (30%)

9

51

11

45

32

86

2

52

0.03

0.15

Vaccination in all countries (50%)

4

43

1

31

32

86

2

52

0.01

0.13


Means of attack and mortality rates in the absence of any intervention and under different vaccination scenarios are calculated on 500 simulation runs for each scenario.

Flahault et al. BMC Infectious Diseases 2009 9:129   doi:10.1186/1471-2334-9-129

Open Data