Figure 2.

Expected shapes of the observed distribution of survival times after detection. Shaded cells A1-C3 show the expected distribution of survival times after detection, given different scenarios for the true distribution of stage 1 survival (A, B and C) and incidence in the pre-detection period (1, 2 and 3). P = proportion of cases remaining in stage 1; t = time; * = exponential function <a onClick="popup('http://www.biomedcentral.com/1471-2334/8/16/mathml/M1','MathML',630,470);return false;" target="_blank" href="http://www.biomedcentral.com/1471-2334/8/16/mathml/M1">View MathML</a>, with mean stage 1 duration = 1/r1; ** = linear function P(t) = -r1t with fixed stage 1 duration = 1/r1.

Checchi et al. BMC Infectious Diseases 2008 8:16   doi:10.1186/1471-2334-8-16
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