a. Deterministic Model of Time vs. Prevalence with biannual treatments: Results from a differential equation based model demonstrating that biannual coverage of 80% of the population should progressively reduce ocular chlamydial infection (blue curve). The deterministic model is an excellent approximation for the expectation of the stochastic model (mean of 1000 simulations, red curve). b. Stochastic Model of Time vs. Prevalence with biannual treatments: The mean of 1000 simulations of a stochastic model, assuming biannual treatments with 80% coverage (again, red curve) vs. the average prevalence of only those villages which still harbor infection (green curve). After the third treatment, the average prevalence of infection in these villages returns to approximately the same level with each subsequent treatment (green curve).
Ray et al. BMC Infectious Diseases 2007 7:91 doi:10.1186/1471-2334-7-91