Table 1

Projected future number of vCJD cases (MLE and 95% prediction interval) based on fitting to the vCJD case data alone and to the case data and prevalence data simultaneously.

vCJD case data alone

vCJD case data and prevalence data simultaneously


2003–2005

20 (3–70)

28 (4–72)

2003–2008

40 (8–138)

60 (9–152)

2003–2080

40 (9–540)

100 (10–2,600)

Fit of the model (-2LnL)

18.7

26.6

Goodness-of-fit p-value

0.29

0.32


Ghani et al. BMC Infectious Diseases 2003 3:4   doi:10.1186/1471-2334-3-4

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