Table 4

Extinction probability and fractions of runs leading to an attack rate (AR) lower than 10%, for the various contact patterns representations and as a function of the role class of the seed
Seed class Number of runs DYN HET HOM CM CMD
Ext. Prob; AR <10% Ext. Prob; AR <10% Ext. Prob; AR <10% Ext. Prob; AR <10% Ext. Prob; AR <10%
All 16000 0.62 0.81 0.35 0.63 0.28 0.32 0.21 0.27 0.37 0.59
Assistants 1344 0.44 0.51 0.13 0.16 0.10 0.12 0.10 0.12 0.11 0.14
Doctors 2690 0.70 0.84 0.32 0.64 0.27 0.30 0.40 0.55 0.42 0.66
Nurses 2823 0.51 0.64 0.26 0.33 0.11 0.13 0.20 0.26 0.21 0.30
Patients 4975 0.68 0.90 0.40 0.79 0.39 0.44 0.18 0.23 0.47 0.74
Care-givers 4168 0.62 0.89 0.31 0.77 0.32 0.37 0.16 0.20 0.42 0.72

Parameter values are: 1/σ = 0.5 days, 1/ν = 1 day, and β = 2.8 10-3 s-1.

Machens et al.

Machens et al. BMC Infectious Diseases 2013 13:185   doi:10.1186/1471-2334-13-185

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