Table 1

Bayesian hierarchical models for the effects of annual precipitation on the relative risk of human West Nile virus in Mississippi, the United States.

Model

DIC

ΔDIC

Weight

Mean and 95% CI of precip coefficient


c

326.77

76.73

0.00

NA

c + Precip

309.58

60.54

0.00

-0.014 (-0.020, -0.007)

c + Precip + UH

257.80

8.76

0.01

-0.008 (-0.020, 0.005)

c + Precip + UH + CH

249.58

0.54

0.43

-0.005 (-0.020, 0.008)

c + UH +CH

249.04

0.00

0.56

NA


Note: letter c denotes constant; Precip is annual precipitation of the previous year; UH is uncorrelated heterogeneity; CH is the correlated heterogeneity modeled by conditional autocorrelative distribution; DIC is deviance information criterion; ΔDIC is the difference between the DIC of a candidate model and the lowest DIC; weight is equivalent to Akaike weight; and CI is credible interval.

Wang et al. BMC Infectious Diseases 2010 10:38   doi:10.1186/1471-2334-10-38

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