Table 2

Bayesian Posterior Probabilities that the Prevalence of Pathologic Esophageal Reflux During PPI Treatment is Greater than the Prevalence of False-Positive Values for Pathologic Integrated Esophageal Acidity and Time Esophageal pH < 4.


Probability that Observed Prevalence of Pathologic Esophageal Reflux is Greater than Prevalence of False-Positive Values

Period
Integrated Esophageal Acidity
Time Esophageal pH < 4

24-hour
0.139
0.985
Nocturnal
0.066
0.999

Bayesian posterior probabilities were calculated using the values for the prevalence of false-positive values given in Table 1, the combined prevalence of pathologic esophageal reflux calculated from the index and 3rd studies, and a flat prior probability [8]. The calculations were for values of prevalence from 0 to 1.0 in steps of 0.05. The flat prior probability considered all prevalence values from 0 to 1.0 to be equally probable.

Gerson et al. BMC Gastroenterology 2008 8:15   doi:10.1186/1471-230X-8-15