Table 3

Comparison of the performance of key variables at baseline to identify incident fatty liver at follow up, using established and newly optimized thresholds of each variable*
Established thresholds
Test Cut point AUROC (95%CI) Sensitivity (%) (95%CI) Specificity (%)(95%CI) PPV (%) (95%CI) NPV (%) (95%CI)
Glucose 5.6 (mmol/l) 0.56 24.9% 86.6% 26.4% 85.7%
(0.53–0.59) (19.2%–31.3%) (84.5%–88.6%) (20.4%–33.1%) (83.5%–87.7%)
Waist 90 (cms) men 18.4% 88.5% 31.8% 78.9%
0.56 (12.5%–25.6%) (85.4%–91.2%) (22.1%–42.8%) (75.3%–82.2%)
80 (cms) women (0.53–0.58) 29% 90.5% 24.7% 92.2%
(18.2%–41.9%) (87.8%–92.8%) (15.3%–36.1%) (89.7%–94.3%)
Triglyceride 1.7 (mmol/l) 0.60 35.9% 85.1% 31.6% 87.3%
(0.57–0.64) (29.4%–42.8%) (82.8%–87.1%) (25.8%–38.0%) (85.2%–89.3%)
ALT 30 (IU/l) 32.7% 75.7% 28.1% 79.5%
(men) 0.52 (25.2%–40.9%) (71.7%–79.4%) (21.5%–35.4%) (75.6%–83%)
19 (IU/l) (0.49–0.56) 32.3% 69.4% 10.2% 90.5%
(women) (20.9%–45.3%) (65.4%–73.1%) (6.31%–15.2%) (87.4%–93.1%)
Platelets 158 (x109/l) 0.51 97.6% 3.32% 16.3% 87.8%
(0.49–0.52) (94.5%–99.2%) (2.34%–4.57%) (14.3%–18.5%) (73.8%–95.9%)
Population–specific thresholds
Test Cut point AUROC (95%CI) Sensitivity (%) (95%CI) Specificity (%) (95%CI) PPV (%) (95%CI) NPV (%) (95%CI)
Glucose 5.0 mmol/l 0.58 70.8% 45.4% 20.0% 89.0%
(0.55–0.62) (64.1%–76.9%) (42.4%–48.4%) (17.2%–23.1%) (86.1%–91.5%)
Waist 78.8 cms (men) 87.7% 35.2% 28.2% 90.8%
0.68 (81.0%–92.7%) (30.9%–39.6%) (24.1%–32.5%) (85.8%–94.4%)
73.5 cms (women (0.65–0.71) 72.4% 67.9% 19.1% 95.6%
(59.1%–83.3%) (63.8%–71.8%) (14.3%–24.8%) (93.2%–97.4%)
Triglyceride 1.1 mmol/l 0.64 76.1% 52.2% 23.5% 91.9%
(0.61–0.67) (69.7%–81.7%) (49.2%–55.2%) (20.3%–26.9%) (89.4%–93.9%)
ALT 24 (IU/l) 55.8% 60.7% 29.2% 82.5%
(men) 0.54 (47.4%–64%) (56.3%–65.0%) (23.9%–34.9%) (78.3%–86.2%)
13 (IU/l) (0.51–0.57) 85.5% 27.5% 11.2% 94.6%
(women) (74.2%–93.1%) (23.9%–31.3%) (8.53%–14.4%) (90.1%–97.5%)
Platelets 262 (x109/l) 0.56 47.4% 64.9% 20.7% 86.5%
(0.52–0.60) (40.4%–54.4%) (62.0%–67.8%) (17.1%–24.6%) (83.9%–88.8%)

Sung et al.

Sung et al. BMC Gastroenterology 2012 12:84   doi:10.1186/1471-230X-12-84

Open Data