Table 4

Performance measures for the expert-based and statistically derived prognostic models

Expert model dicho

Expert model cont

Statistical model


calibration slope

1.017

0.986

1.019

R2N

0.098

0.13

0.162

AUC

0.656

0.679

0.702

95% CI

0.612 - 0.700

0.636 - 0.722

0.660 - 0.745

Optimism

0.029

0.028

0.014

AUCcorrected

0.627

0.651

0.688


Expert model dicho = prognostic model using dichotomized expert selected predictors

Expert model cont = prognostic model using continuous expert selected predictors

R2N = Nagelkerke's explained variance

AUC = Discriminative ability as indicated by the Area Under the ROC Curve

95% CI = 95% confidence interval for the AUC

Optimism = the models' estimated deterioration when applied to new subjects

AUCcorrected = the optimism corrected Area Under the ROC Curve

Vergouw et al. BMC Family Practice 2011 12:63   doi:10.1186/1471-2296-12-63

Open Data