Table 1

Delphi procedure results

Round 1

Round 2

Round 3

Predictors

mean (SD)

rank n = 46

sum score

rank n = 65

inclusion agreement

rank


Symptom duration

4.26 (0.78)

1

253

1

100%

1

Pain catastrophizing

4.03 (0.95)

3

160

2

84%

2

Symptom history

4.06 (0.80)

2

95

3

90%

3

Fear-avoidance beliefs

3.91 (1.04)

6

86

4

90%

4

Coexisting neck pain

3.49 (1.12)

22

79

5

100%

5

Baseline severity of shoulder disability

3.49 (1.07)

21

78

6

97%

6

Coexisting psychological complaints/general mental health problems

3.83 (0.95)

9

73

7

84%

-b

Currently on sick leave because of shoulder pain

3.69 (0.87)

11

70

8

81%

-c

Multisite pain

n = 10a

-

68

9

84%

7

Somatisation

4.00 (0.97)

4

67

10

84%

-d

Age

3.58 (0.73)

17

64

11

19%

8

Shoulder pain intensity

3.49 (1.24)

23

64

12

13%

9

Illness perceptions

3.91 (1.01)

5

62

13

13%

10

Depression/depressive symptoms

3.91 (1.07)

7

61

14

10%

-

Passive coping strategies

3.63 (1.06)

15

60

15

6%

-

Repetitive movements

3.86 (0.81)

8

46

16

3%

-

High physical load at work or leisure time

n = 11a

-

39

17

6%

-

Strain or overuse due to usual activities in work or leisure time

3.43 (1.06)

25

32

18

10%

-

Patient reports stiffness of the shoulder

3.06 (0.97)

30

32

19

6%

-

Diabetes Mellitus

n = 2a

-

32

20

10%

-


Predictors (only the 20 most highly ranked from round 2) are ordered by their prognostic importance as assessed in the second Delphi round

mean = mean score for rating individual potential predictor importance, [1 (not at all predictive) - 5 (highly predictive)]

SD = standard deviation

rank = the order of appearance of potential predictors in individual Delphi rounds based on scores for prognostic importance

sum score = the sum of all scores for predictive importance for each potential predictor

inclusion agreement = consensus on the inclusion of potential predictors in the selection of the ten most important predictors for persistent shoulder pain intensity

a additional potential predictor added by n panel members

b potential predictor omitted from final selection since it overlaps with 'fear-avoidance' and the item is 'too general'

c potential predictor combined with predictor 'severity of shoulder disability'

d potential predictor omitted from final selection since it overlaps with 'multisite pain' and 'fear avoidance'

Vergouw et al. BMC Family Practice 2011 12:63   doi:10.1186/1471-2296-12-63

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