Table 2

Predictors of 10-year coronary heart disease without and with adjustment for time dependent traditional risk factors

Model 1

Model 2

Model 3

Model 4


HR (95% CI)

HR (95% CI)

HR (95% CI)

HR (95% CI)


    Baseline Risk Factors


Framingham Risk Score

2.29

(2.08, 2.53)

2.26

(2.05, 2.49)

2.25

(2.03, 2.50)


Lower SES

1.79

(1.49, 2.16)

1.53

(1.27, 1.85)

1.44

(1.19, 1.74)


    Time Dependent Risk Factors


Total cholesterol (per 10 mg/dL change)

1.07 (1.03,1.10)


HDL cholesterol (per 10 mg/dL change)

1.02 (0.90,1.14)


Systolic blood pressure (per 10 mm Hg change)

1.12 (1.07,1.17)


Current Smoker

1.58 (1.05,2.39)


Anti-hypertensive medication

0.79 (0.57,1.09)


Notes: HR = adjusted hazard ratio; CI = confidence interval; SES = socio-economic status; HDL = high density lipoprotein. Framingham risk score was complementary log log transformed: log (-log (1-Framingham risk score)). Model 1 includes SES only; Model 2 includes Framingham risk score only; Model 3 includes both SES and Framingham risk score; Model 4 adds changes in time dependent risk factors. Time dependent risk factors are changes in value of risk factor from baseline (current-baseline). Blood pressure and lipid change scores were rescaled (by dividing by 10) to produce more interpretable hazard ratios for these measures.

Franks et al. BMC Cardiovascular Disorders 2011 11:28   doi:10.1186/1471-2261-11-28

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