Table 2

Bayesian parameter estimates

Data Set
Demographic Model
log P(D|M)1
Neτ (years)
r2
μ3
α4
κ
tMRCA (years)

Brown bear
(d-loop)
Constant*
-2200
113,800
-
5.68 × 10-7
0.243
41.8
153,500

Exp. growth
-2198
127,000
5.45 × 10-6
5.95 × 10-7
0.243
41.7
145,100
HRSV
(g gene)
Constant*
-6068
36.3
-
0.00242
0.900
12.4
56.1

Exp. growth
-6070
53.0
0.0263
0.00239
0.900
12.4
55.8
Dengue-4
(E gene)
Constant
-3960
11.2
-
0.000976
0.167
17.3
19.7

Exp. growth*
-3952
38.9
0.134
0.00096
0.167
17.2
19.0
Influenza A
(HA)
Constant*
-4386
4.3
-
0.00503
0.332
5.49
19.0

Exp. growth
-4383
7.25
0.0681
0.00506
0.332
5.5
18.9

Posterior parameter estimates from the MCMC analyses. The effective population size is reported only as a product with generation time (Neτ) and the compound parameter has unit of years for virus data sets and radiocarbon years for the brown bear data set. Posterior means are reported for all model parameters. For each data set, the demographic model chosen by a Bayes factor is marked (*). 1marginal likelihood, 2exponential growth rate, 3substitution rate, 4shape parameter of the Γ-distribution.

Drummond and Suchard BMC Genetics 2008 9:68   doi:10.1186/1471-2156-9-68