Figure 3.

Distribution of the log₁₀ Bayes factor in 1,114 false positive associations generated in approximately 10⁶ association tests with an estimated false positive rate 5 10^-6. The analysis shows that the chance to observe a very large Bayes factor has an exponential decay, and the probability of observing a Bayes factor greater than 10 by chance is 6 10^-4, the probability of observing a Bayes factor greater than 100 is 3 10^-4, greater than 1000 is 2 10^-4.