Table 4

Occupied and modelled range sizes and extinction risk estimates for Cyclamen. Range sizes based on Grey-Wilson's maps [26].

Present range

Bioclim 2050

Maxent 2050

Species

(km2)

(km2)

loss %

kappa

(km2)

loss %

kappa


C. africanum

53,365

622

99%

0.385

18,577

65%

0.493

C. balearicum

35,690

1,128

97%

0.227

10,503

71%

0.508

C. cilicium

59,724

1,873

97%

0.141

14,282

76%

0.545

C. colchicum

7,451

0

100%

0.897

1,731

77%

0.326

C. coum

453,333

291,502

36%

0.052

77,132

83%

0.352

C. creticum

18,936

0

100%

0.816

9,497

50%

0.566

C. cyprium

15,796

0

100%

0.518

8,233

48%

0.433

C. elegans

28,917

0

100%

0.211

3,692

87%

0.337

C. graecum

168,892

71,513

58%

0.222

85,270

50%

0.444

C. hederifolium

967,928

473,241

51%

0.321

183,213

81%

0.624

C. intaminatum

14,273

0

100%

0.875

2,379

83%

0.528

C. libanoticum

2,562

0

100%

0.667

0

100%

0.067

C. mirabile

15,321

0

100%

0.254

12,286

20%

0.585

C. parviflorum

11,742

0

100%

0.769

2,362

80%

0.437

C. persicum

157,919

71,234

55%

0.290

71,535

55%

0.526

C. pseudibericum

14,767

1,249

92%

0.226

12,336

16%

0.605

C. purpurascens

440,025

232,490

47%

0.255

150,037

66%

0.601

C. repandum

513,568

285,493

44%

0.255

67,739

87%

0.625

C. rohlfsianum

34,573

0

100%

0.717

22,218

36%

0.800

C. somalense

6,797

0

100%

0.720

5,292

22%

0.480

C. trochopteranthum

27,769

0

100%

0.204

22,836

18%

0.285


Total

3,049,350

1,430,346

53%

0.430

781,149

74%

0.484


Present day models for BIOCLIM and Maxent algorithms examined within 2050s climate scenarios with restrictions of limited dispersal. Kappa statistic for present day models compared with Grey-Wilson maps.

Yesson and Culham BMC Evolutionary Biology 2006 6:72   doi:10.1186/1471-2148-6-72

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