Table 4

Hypothesis testing of historical demography for Northern Cardinal clades using different demographic models

Model

Marginal Likelihood (S.E.)

log Bayes Factors


    cardinalis

Constant Size

-2187.800 (+/- 0.336)

-

Expansion Growth

-2170.486 (+/- 0.354)

7.520

Bayesian Skyline

-2155.803 (+/- 0.411)

13.896


    igneus
    A

Constant Size

-1585.983 (+/- 0.316)

-

Expansion Growth

-1580.354 (+/- 0.350)

2.445

Bayesian Skyline

-1565.140 (+/- 0.364)

9.052


    igneus
    B

Constant Size

-1513.415 (+/- 0.311)

-

Expansion Growth

-1512.251 (+/- 0.254)

0.505

Bayesian Skyline

-1503.067 (+/- 0.303)

4.494


    coccineus

Constant Size

-1380.049 (+/- 0.174)

-

Expansion growth

-1380.054 (+/- 0.166)

-0.002

Bayesian Skyline

-1379.877 (+/- 0.170)

0.075


igneus A - Tiburón Island samples were removed.

igneus B - Baja California and Tiburón Island samples removed

Smith et al. BMC Evolutionary Biology 2011 11:136   doi:10.1186/1471-2148-11-136

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