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Integrated modeling and management of poliovirus endgame risks and policies

 

This series of articles by researchers from Kid Risk, Inc. offers critical insights to help national, regional, and global health leaders as they navigate the polio endgame.  The series includes papers that explore the risks of a non-synchronous switch from oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) containing serotypes 1, 2, and 3 (trivalent OPV or tOPV) to bivalent OPV (bOPV) containing serotypes 1 and 3, and the consequences of inadvertent use of tOPV after the global switch from tOPV-bOPV.  One paper examines different options for responding to outbreaks that may occur during the endgame.  Several papers in the series use a global model developed and applied in one paper to characterize the risks, costs, and benefits of different future poliovirus risk management options for 2013-2052 compared to the 2013 baseline of continued widespread use of OPV. One paper provides estimates of vaccine needs for different OPV formulations in the run up to coordinated OPV cessation of each serotype.  The series includes a paper that shows the importance vaccine choice and of preferentially using tOPV for supplemental immunization activities in the run up to the switch.  One paper reviews the available evidence and characterizes the potential for reintroductions of immunodeficiency-associated vaccine-derived polioviruses.  Another paper explores alternative OPV cessation timing options that represented alternative paths to the current strategy.

 

  1. Research article

    Implementation of coordinated global serotype 2 oral poliovirus vaccine cessation: risks of inadvertent trivalent oral poliovirus vaccine use

    The endgame for polio eradication includes coordinated global cessation of oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV), starting with the cessation of vaccine containing OPV serotype 2 (OPV2) by switching all trivalent OPV ...

    Radboud J. Duintjer Tebbens, Lee M. Hampton and Kimberly M. Thompson

    BMC Infectious Diseases 2016 16:237

    Published on: 1 June 2016

  2. Research article

    Implementation of coordinated global serotype 2 oral poliovirus vaccine cessation: risks of potential non-synchronous cessation

    The endgame for polio eradication involves coordinated global cessation of oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) with cessation of serotype 2 OPV (OPV2 cessation) implemented in late April and early May 2016 and cessa...

    Radboud J. Duintjer Tebbens, Lee M. Hampton and Kimberly M. Thompson

    BMC Infectious Diseases 2016 16:231

    Published on: 26 May 2016

  3. Research article

    Characterization of outbreak response strategies and potential vaccine stockpile needs for the polio endgame

    Following successful eradication of wild polioviruses and planned globally-coordinated cessation of oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV), national and global health leaders may need to respond to outbreaks from reint...

    Radboud J. Duintjer Tebbens, Mark A. Pallansch, Steven G. F. Wassilak, Stephen L. Cochi and Kimberly M. Thompson

    BMC Infectious Diseases 2016 16:137

    Published on: 24 March 2016

  4. Research article

    An economic analysis of poliovirus risk management policy options for 2013–2052

    The Global Polio Eradication Initiative plans for coordinated cessation of oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) after interrupting all wild poliovirus (WPV) transmission, but many questions remain related to long-ter...

    Radboud J. Duintjer Tebbens, Mark A. Pallansch, Stephen L. Cochi, Steven G.F. Wassilak and Kimberly M. Thompson

    BMC Infectious Diseases 2015 15:389

    Published on: 24 September 2015

  5. Research article

    Health and economic consequences of different options for timing the coordinated global cessation of the three oral poliovirus vaccine serotypes

    World leaders remain committed to globally-coordinated oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) cessation following successful eradication of wild polioviruses, but the best timing and strategy for implementation depend ...

    Kimberly M. Thompson and Radboud J. Duintjer Tebbens

    BMC Infectious Diseases 2015 15:374

    Published on: 17 September 2015

  6. Research article

    The differential impact of oral poliovirus vaccine formulation choices on serotype-specific population immunity to poliovirus transmission

    Prior analyses demonstrated the need for some countries and the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) to conduct additional supplemental immunization activities (SIAs) with trivalent oral poliovirus vacci...

    Kimberly M. Thompson and Radboud J. Duintjer Tebbens

    BMC Infectious Diseases 2015 15:376

    Published on: 17 September 2015

  7. Research article

    Modeling the prevalence of immunodeficiency-associated long-term vaccine-derived poliovirus excretors and the potential benefits of antiviral drugs

    A small number of individuals with B-cell-related primary immunodeficiency diseases (PIDs) may exhibit long-term (prolonged or chronic) excretion of immunodeficiency-associated vaccine-derived polioviruses (iV...

    Radboud J. Duintjer Tebbens, Mark A. Pallansch and Kimberly M. Thompson

    BMC Infectious Diseases 2015 15:379

    Published on: 17 September 2015

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