Quantitative analysis of strategies to achieve the 2020 goals for neglected tropical diseases: where are we now?
This thematic collection of papers aims to provide quantitative analyses to support policy development in the run up to the 2020 goals for neglected tropical diseases laid out by the World Health Organisation and supported in the London Declaration. This collection focuses on the nine diseases in the London Declaration targeted for control or elimination as a public health problem, reducing the burden of disease. The implications of these analyses are summarised in the overarching article, which serves as an introduction to the collection for both non-modellers and modellers who are new to neglected tropical diseases.
For the preventive chemotherapy diseases (PCT) or mass drug administration (MDA) diseases (lymphatic filariasis, onchocerciasis, soil-transmitted helminths, schistosomiasis and trachoma), the issues faced by the programmes are how frequently treatments should be given, to whom should they be given, for how many rounds, as well as methods for estimating the impact of the current programmes. In this collection there are analyses which estimate the impact of current strategies, and the feasibility of achieving the 2020 targets under current and altered strategies.
For the intensified disease management diseases (leprosy, human African trypanosomiasis, visceral leishmaniasis and Chagas disease), there are more fundamental questions around the natural history of disease and the transmission dynamics to be addressed. In this collection there are papers providing new estimates for key parameters, such as incubation periods and true underlying incidence, as well as papers studying the consequences of different model structures to investigate hypotheses about the transmission dynamics.
This collection is the result of a recent and growing international collaboration of researchers within the NTD Modelling Consortium. The authors and guest editor gratefully acknowledge funding of the NTD Modelling Consortium by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation in partnership with the Task Force for Global Health, by Novartis Foundation and by Children’s Investment Fund Foundation (UK) ("CIFF"). The views, opinions, assumptions or any other information set out in this collection are solely those of the authors.
Collection published: 22 October 2015
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