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Quantitative analysis of strategies to achieve the 2020 goals for neglected tropical diseases: where are we now?

This thematic collection of papers aims to provide quantitative analyses to support policy development in the run up to the 2020 goals for neglected tropical diseases laid out by the World Health Organisation and supported in the London Declaration. This collection focuses on the nine diseases in the London Declaration targeted for control or elimination as a public health problem, reducing the burden of disease. The implications of these analyses are summarised in the overarching article, which serves as an introduction to the collection for both non-modellers and modellers who are new to neglected tropical diseases.

For the preventive chemotherapy diseases (PCT) or mass drug administration (MDA) diseases (lymphatic filariasis, onchocerciasis, soil-transmitted helminths, schistosomiasis and trachoma), the issues faced by the programmes are how frequently treatments should be given, to whom should they be given, for how many rounds, as well as methods for estimating the impact of the current programmes. In this collection there are analyses which estimate the impact of current strategies, and the feasibility of achieving the 2020 targets under current and altered strategies.

For the intensified disease management diseases (leprosy, human African trypanosomiasis, visceral leishmaniasis and Chagas disease), there are more fundamental questions around the natural history of disease and the transmission dynamics to be addressed. In this collection there are papers providing new estimates for key parameters, such as incubation periods and true underlying incidence, as well as papers studying the consequences of different model structures to investigate hypotheses about the transmission dynamics.

This collection is the result of a recent and growing international collaboration of researchers within the NTD Modelling Consortium. The authors and guest editor gratefully acknowledge funding of the NTD Modelling Consortium by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation in partnership with the Task Force for Global Health, by Novartis Foundation and by Children’s Investment Fund Foundation (UK) ("CIFF"). The views, opinions, assumptions or any other information set out in this collection are solely those of the authors.

Collection published: 22 October 2015

View all collections published in Parasites & Vectors

  1. Research

    Mathematical modelling of lymphatic filariasis elimination programmes in India: required duration of mass drug administration and post-treatment level of infection indicators

    India has made great progress towards the elimination of lymphatic filariasis. By 2015, most endemic districts had completed at least five annual rounds of mass drug administration (MDA). The next challenge is...

    Purushothaman Jambulingam, Swaminathan Subramanian, S. J. de Vlas, Chellasamy Vinubala and W. A. Stolk

    Parasites & Vectors 2016 9:501

    Published on: 13 September 2016

  2. Research

    Feasibility of eliminating visceral leishmaniasis from the Indian subcontinent: explorations with a set of deterministic age-structured transmission models

    Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is a neglected tropical disease transmitted by sandflies. On the Indian subcontinent (ISC), VL is targeted for elimination as a public health problem by 2017. In the context of VL, ...

    Epke A. Le Rutte, Luc E. Coffeng, Daniel M. Bontje, Epco C. Hasker, José A. Ruiz Postigo, Daniel Argaw, Marleen C. Boelaert and Sake J. De Vlas

    Parasites & Vectors 2016 9:24

    Published on: 19 January 2016

  3. Review

    Quantitative analyses and modelling to support achievement of the 2020 goals for nine neglected tropical diseases

    Quantitative analysis and mathematical models are useful tools in informing strategies to control or eliminate disease. Currently, there is an urgent need to develop these tools to inform policy to achieve the...

    T. Déirdre Hollingsworth, Emily R. Adams, Roy M. Anderson, Katherine Atkins, Sarah Bartsch, María-Gloria Basáñez, Matthew Behrend, David J. Blok, Lloyd A. C. Chapman, Luc Coffeng, Orin Courtenay, Ron E. Crump, Sake J. de Vlas, Andy Dobson, Louise Dyson, Hajnal Farkas…

    Parasites & Vectors 2015 8:630

    Published on: 9 December 2015

  4. Research

    Quantification of the natural history of visceral leishmaniasis and consequences for control

    Visceral leishmaniasis has been targeted for elimination as a public health problem (less than 1 case per 10,000 people per year) in the Indian sub-continent by 2017. However, there is still a high degree of u...

    Lloyd A C Chapman, Louise Dyson, Orin Courtenay, Rajib Chowdhury, Caryn Bern, Graham F. Medley and T. Deirdre Hollingsworth

    Parasites & Vectors 2015 8:521

    Published on: 22 October 2015

  5. Research

    What is required in terms of mass drug administration to interrupt the transmission of schistosome parasites in regions of endemic infection?

    Schistosomiasis is endemic in 54 countries, but has one of the lowest coverages by mass drug administration of all helminth diseases. However, with increasing drug availability through donation, the World Heal...

    RM Anderson, HC Turner, SH Farrell, Jie Yang and JE Truscott

    Parasites & Vectors 2015 8:553

    Published on: 22 October 2015

  6. Research

    Modelling strategies to break transmission of lymphatic filariasis - aggregation, adherence and vector competence greatly alter elimination

    With ambitious targets to eliminate lymphatic filariasis over the coming years, there is a need to identify optimal strategies to achieve them in areas with different baseline prevalence and stages of control....

    M. A. Irvine, L. J. Reimer, S. M. Njenga, S. Gunawardena, L. Kelly-Hope, M. Bockarie and T. D. Hollingsworth

    Parasites & Vectors 2015 8:547

    Published on: 22 October 2015

  7. Research

    What impact will the achievement of the current World Health Organisation targets for anthelmintic treatment coverage in children have on the intensity of soil transmitted helminth infections?

    It is the aim of the World Health Organisation to eliminate soil-transmitted helminths (STH) as a health problem in children. To this end, the goal is to increase anthelmintic treatment coverage for soil trans...

    JE Truscott, HC Turner and RM Anderson

    Parasites & Vectors 2015 8:551

    Published on: 22 October 2015

  8. Research

    Feasibility of controlling hookworm infection through preventive chemotherapy: a simulation study using the individual-based WORMSIM modelling framework

    Globally, hookworms infect 440 million people in developing countries. Especially children and women of childbearing age are at risk of developing anaemia as a result of infection. To control hookworm infectio...

    Luc E. Coffeng, Roel Bakker, Antonio Montresor and Sake J. de Vlas

    Parasites & Vectors 2015 8:541

    Published on: 22 October 2015

  9. Research

    Modelling control of Schistosoma haematobium infection: predictions of the long-term impact of mass drug administration in Africa

    Effective control of schistosomiasis remains a challenging problem for endemic areas of the world. Given knowledge of the biology of transmission and past experience with mass drug administration (MDA) program...

    David Gurarie, Nara Yoon, Emily Li, Martial Ndeffo-Mbah, David Durham, Anna E. Phillips, H. Osvaldo Aurelio, Josefo Ferro, Alison P. Galvani and Charles H. King

    Parasites & Vectors 2015 8:529

    Published on: 22 October 2015

  10. Research

    Evaluating long-term effectiveness of sleeping sickness control measures in Guinea

    Human African Trypanosomiasis threatens human health across Africa. The subspecies T.b. gambiense is responsible for the vast majority of reported HAT cases. Over the past decade, expanded control efforts accompl...

    Abhishek Pandey, Katherine E. Atkins, Bruno Bucheton, Mamadou Camara, Serap Aksoy, Alison P. Galvani and Martial L. Ndeffo-Mbah

    Parasites & Vectors 2015 8:550

    Published on: 22 October 2015

  11. Research

    Required duration of mass ivermectin treatment for onchocerciasis elimination in Africa: a comparative modelling analysis

    The World Health Organization (WHO) has set ambitious targets for the elimination of onchocerciasis by 2020–2025 through mass ivermectin treatment. Two different mathematical models have assessed the feasibili...

    Wilma A. Stolk, Martin Walker, Luc E. Coffeng, María-Gloria Basáñez and Sake J. de Vlas

    Parasites & Vectors 2015 8:552

    Published on: 22 October 2015

  12. Research

    Spatial heterogeneity in projected leprosy trends in India

    Leprosy is caused by infection with Mycobacterium leprae and is characterized by peripheral nerve damage and skin lesions. The disease is classified into paucibacillary (PB) and multibacillary (MB) leprosy. The 2...

    Cara E. Brook, Roxanne Beauclair, Olina Ngwenya, Lee Worden, Martial Ndeffo-Mbah, Thomas M. Lietman, Sudhir K. Satpathy, Alison P. Galvani and Travis C. Porco

    Parasites & Vectors 2015 8:542

    Published on: 22 October 2015

  13. Research

    Short-term forecasting of the prevalence of clinical trachoma: utility of including delayed recovery and tests for infection

    The World Health Organization aims to control blinding trachoma by 2020. Decisions on whether to start and stop mass treatments and when to declare that control has been achieved are currently based on clinica...

    Fengchen Liu, Travis C. Porco, Abdou Amza, Boubacar Kadri, Baido Nassirou, Sheila K. West, Robin L. Bailey, Jeremy D. Keenan and Thomas M. Lietman

    Parasites & Vectors 2015 8:535

    Published on: 22 October 2015

    The Erratum to this article has been published in Parasites & Vectors 2016 9:327

  14. Research

    Global elimination of leprosy by 2020: are we on track?

    Every year more than 200,000 new leprosy cases are registered globally. This number has been fairly stable over the past 8 years. WHO has set a target to interrupt the transmission of leprosy globally by 2020....

    David J. Blok, Sake J. De Vlas and Jan Hendrik Richardus

    Parasites & Vectors 2015 8:548

    Published on: 22 October 2015